Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh is one of the states where BJP is expected to win convincingly, and looking at their performance in last year's assembly elections, it seems more or less quite a predictable outcome. In the Assembly elections the BJP won 165 seats compared to Congress's 58. But more importantly, BJP polled more votes than the Congress in 26 out of the 29 Lok Sabha constituencies. Madhya Pradesh has remained BJP's stronghold for quite some time now, and it is only in a few constituencies that a close battle is expected. Some important constituencies to look out for -

• Chhindwara - This should be one of the most closely-fought battles where Sitting MLA Chandrabhan Choudhary is contesting Sitting MP Kamal Nath in Congress' bastion. I predict a win for Kamal Nath, but it would be a close call
• Sidhi - This is a constituency where it will be a battle of youth vs experience. 36-year old Riti Pathak will find it difficult to overcome 66-year old Congress veteran Indrajeet Kumar. Riti Pathak even has a Facebook page though. It remains to be seen if the youth of this constituency have voted in large numbers for her.
• Bhopal - AAP's Rachna Dhingra(who gave up a job with Accenture in the US to return to India to participate in the polls) would be a decent threat to BJP's dominance in this constituency. The rallies have used the Bhopal Gas tragedy as a plank to appeal to the voters promising justice to victims.
• Damoh - Though Mahendra Pratap Singh of Congress is a strong contender, there are rumors that he could defect to BJP, making this an interesting contest.
• Guna - The land of the royal family of Scindias, it is a make or break constituency for Congress. It will be a tough challenge for Jyotiraditya Scindia to retain the seat, but going by the campaign efforts, it looks likely he will be able to manage it
• Indore - Fondly known as 'Tai', 70-year-old Sumitra Mahajan had defeated former chief minister of Madhya Pradesh Prakash Chand Sethi in 1989 and since then has been a 7-time MP. She should win the 8th time easily.
• Mandla - This will be an interesting constituency to watch as both previous LS elections and recent assembly elections were won by Congress. But Modi had a successful rally in this town and this could swing votes to BJP
• Morena - Anoop Mishra who is the BJP candidate contesting here is Atal Behari Vajpayee's nephew and hence has a strong chance
• Rajgarh - Even though this is a Congress stronghold and the Cong candidate being a proxy for Digvijay Singh, in the recent assembly elections, the BJP won six out of the eight assembly segments that fall within Rajgarh. So it will be an interesting contest
• Rewa - Rewa was one of the constituencies where Modi had to cut short his speech due to his helicopter being delayed in Delhi. It could be a tough fight for them here, also because it is one of the constituencies where a non-BJP/Congress party has the sitting MP - Deoraj Patel of BSP
• Ujjain - This is a constituency where there is a strong anti-incumbency wave against INC. Ujjain did not see Modi turn up for a rally, but His election managers organised 3D public meetings at a number of places, besides hosting the online tea parties

So the constituency-wise predictions are as follows

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	BALAGHAT	Bodhsingh Bhagat	BJP	Anubha Munjare	SP
2	BETUL	Jyoti Dhurve	BJP	Ajay Shah Makrai	INC
3	BHIND	Dr. Bhagirath Prasad	BJP	Manish Katroliya	BSP
4	BHOPAL	Alok Sanjar	BJP	Rachna Dhingra	AAP
5	CHHINDWARA	Kamal Nath	INC	Chandrabhan Singh Choudhary	BJP
6	DAMOH	Prahlad Singh Patel	BJP	Mahendra Pratap Singh	INC
7	DEWAS	Manohar Untwal	BJP	Sajjan Singh Verma	INC
8	DHAR	Savitri Thakur	BJP	Umang Singhar	INC
9	GUNA	Jyotiraditya M. Scindia	INC	Jaibhansingh Pawaiya	BJP
10	GWALIOR	Narendra Singh Tomar	BJP	Ashok Singh	INC
11	HOSHANGABAD	Uday Pratap Singh	BJP	Devendra Patel	INC
12	INDORE	Sumitra Mahajan	BJP	Satynarayan Patel	INC
13	JABALPUR	Rakesh Singh	BJP	Vivekkrishna Tankha	INC
14	KHAJURAHO	Nagendra Singh	BJP	Raja Pateriya	INC
15	KHANDWA	Nandkumar Singh Chouhan	BJP	Arun Subhash Chandra Yadav	INC
16	KHARGONE	Subhash Patel	BJP	Ramesh Chensingh	INC
17	MANDLA	Faggan Singh Kulaste	BJP	Omkar Singh Markam	INC
18	MANDSOUR	Sudhir Gupta	BJP	Meenakshi Natarajan	INC
19	MORENA	Anoop Mishra	BJP	Brindawan Singh Sikarwar	BSP
20	RAJGARH	Rodmal Nagar	BJP	Narayan Singh	INC
21	RATLAM	Dileep Singh Bhuriya	BJP	Kantilal Bhuriya	INC
22	REWA	Janardan Mishra	BJP	Deoraj Singh Patel	BSP
23	SAGAR	Laxmi Narayan Yadav	BJP	Govind Singh Rajput	INC
24	SATNA	Ganesh Singh	BJP	Ajay Arjun Singh	INC
25	SHAHDOL	Dalpat Singh Paraste	BJP	Rajes Nandini Singh	INC
26	SIDHI	Indrajeet Kumar	INC	Riti Pathak	BJP
27	TIKAMGARH	Dr. Virendra Kumar	BJP	Kamlesh Kumar	INC
28	UJJAIN	Chintamani Malviya	BJP	Premchand Guddu	INC
29	VIDISHA	Sushma Swaraj	BJP	Lakshman Singh	INC

And the seats tally would be as follows

Party	Total
BJP	26
INC	3

Kerala

UDF(United Democratic Front), consisting of INC, Kerala Congress and IUML(Indian Union Muslim League) won 16 out of 20 seats in the previous LS elections in 2009. This year around, they definitely cannot win as many seats, due to both Congress' performance at the centre and accusations against Oommen Chandy's state government. Their opposition, LDF, led by CPI(M) is mainly playing caste-based politics and looking to gain votes from the Communist support base and the minorities. BJP hasn't sent a single MP from this state yet and it is trying very hard to change that using the Modi wave. But whether it will have any major impact remains to be seen. As per my predictions, UDF could win 9 seats, LDF 10 and BJP 1. Interesting constituencies to watch out for are

• Thiruvananthapuram - Shashi Tharoor had a landslide win last elections, despite being an outsider. The voters in this constituency value achievements and credibility over anything else, so it will be interesting to see if Mr. Tharoor can win a second time. His main opposition here are O.Rajagopal of BJP, an 84-year old veteran, and Bennett Abraham, of CPI(M).
• Chalakudy - Innocent, a Malayalam movie comedian is contesting here as an Independent. Being a cancer survivor and having the backing of CPI(M), he should have a strong chance against P.C.Chacko of Congress
• Attingal - One of the constituencies where BJP has a strong chance, having fielded a woman candidate - Girija Kumary against A.Sampath of CPI(M). This constituency has 595005 female voters compared to 496427 male voters. This could turn out to be a decisive factor in Girija's favor.
• Pathanamthitta - Anto Antony is the sitting MP and has a good support base in the constituency, but his strong backing to a controversial Aranmula airport project could divert some votes from him
• Idukki - Kasturirangan report which would be implemented if Congress comes to power is a major factor, and opponents are using this as mileage to gain votes. Low voter turnout has also caused some rifts within Congress post elections, indicating LDF has a good chance to win here

So my constituency-wise predictions are as follows - 

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	ALAPUZZHA	C B Chandrababu	CPI(M)	K C Venugopal	INC
2	ALATHUR	P.K.Biju	CPI(M)	Sheeba K A	INC
3	ATTINGAL	Girija Kumary	BJP	A Sampath	CPI(M)
4	CHALAKUDY	Innocent	Independent	P.C Chacko	INC
5	ERNAKULAM	Christy Fernandez	Independent	K.V. Thomas	INC
6	IDUKKI	Adv.Joice George	Independent	Adv.Dean Kuriakose	INC
7	KANNUR	P K Sreemathi	CPI(M)	P C Mohanan	BJP
8	KASARAGOD	T.Siddique	INC	P Karunakaran	CPI(M)
9	KOLLAM	N.K.Premachandran	RSP	M.A. Baby	CPI(M)
10	KOTTAYAM	Jose K Mani	KEC(M)	Mathew T Thomas	JD(S)
11	KOZHIKODE	A. Vijayaraghavan	CPI(M)	C.K. Padmanabhan	BJP
12	MALAPPURAM	E. Ahamed	IUML	P.K. Saniaba	CPI(M)
13	MAVELIKKARA	Chengara Surendran	CPI(M)	Kodikunnil Suresh	INC
14	PALAKKAD	M B Rajesh	CPI(M)	Smt. Shobha Surendran	BJP
15	PATHANAMTHITTA	Anto Antony	INC	Peelipose Thomas	Independent
16	PONNANI	E. T. Mohammed Basheer	IUML	Abdurahiman Varikottil	Independent
17	THIRUVANANTHAPURAM	Dr. Shashi Tharoor	INC	O Rajagopal	BJP
18	THRISSUR	C N Jayadevan	CPI(M)	Dhanapalan	INC
19	VADAKKARA	Mullappally Ramachandran	INC	Adv.A.N.Shamseer	CPI(M)
20	WAYANAD	M I Shanavas	INC	Sathyan Mokeri	CPI(M)

The seats tally would be as follows

Party	Seats
BJP	1
CPI(M)	7
INC	5
Independent	3
IUML	2
KEC(M)	1
RSP	1

Since all independents I have predicted as winners are contesting with CPI(M)'s support, LDF's count would be 10. BJP's sole win is also doubtful, which if goes to CPI(M), their tally would be 11. UDF's count will at max be 9, adding up seats for Congress, IUML, KEC and RSP. 

The Battle for the North-East states

After Tamil Nadu, I thought I'll move on to another state that has its polls completed. I thought the north-east region would be a nice option. Considering the following states - Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura as a group, they account for 25 constituencies in all. Many of these states are considered congress bastions and there is a strong presence of regional parties such as AGP(Asom Gana Parishad) and AIUDF(All India United Democratic Front) in Assam. Both Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi have conducted well-hyped rallies majorly in Manipur and Assam. The presence of a Modi wave in this region is indeed doubtful, but it would sure do a lot to split votes in Congress-dominated regions where the candidate is not really strong. Other important observations to note are -

• the demand for Bodoland could be a huge factor in Assam's Kokrajhar and Mangaldoi constituencies. Depending on how many non-Bodos vote, the results could vary.
• in Lakhimpur constituency in Assam, Ranee Narah, the sitting MP will face a tough challenge from Sarbananda Sonowal of BJP. Sonowal had defected from AGP 3 years back and was once defeated by Ranee Narah in the 1999 elections(when he was part of the AGP)
• In Jorhat constituency in Assam, where tea tribes are an important voter base, BJP's Kamakhya Prasad Tasa, a former tea tribe leader could pose a serious threat to 6-time sitting MP Bijoy Krishna Handique of Congress
• In Kaliabor in Assam, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi's son Gaurav, has a British campaigner - his wife, Elizabeth Claire, who is learning Assamese fast and using her language skills at few political rallies she has attended. If he wins, Gaurav, aged 31, could be one of the youngest MPs this year
• In Arunachal Pradesh West, Congress's Takam Sanjoy and BJP's Kiren Rijiju fought a close battle in 2009 as well, and Takam Sanjoy won by a mere 1314 votes. This time, Kiren Rijiju will have a stronger chance. The other Arunachal constituency should go to Congress in all likelihood
• In Sikkim, the sitting MP, Prem Das Rai is the first MP to have the IIT-IIM tag, having studied in IIT-K and IIM-A. He has a strong political record as well, and is seen as the most favored candidate.

So the seat tally as per my predictions looks as follows

State	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
ARUNACHAL PRADESH	ARUNACHAL EAST	Ninong Ering	INC	Tapir Gao	BJP
ARUNACHAL PRADESH	ARUNACHAL WEST	Kiren Rijiju	BJP	Takam Sanjoy	INC
ASSAM	AUTONOMOUS DISTRICT	Biren Singh Engti	INC	Joy Ram Engleng	BJP
ASSAM	BARPETA	Phani Bhusan Choudhury	AGP	Ismail Hussain	INC
ASSAM	DHUBRI	Badruddin Ajmal	AIUDF	Wazed Ali Choudhury	INC
ASSAM	DIBRUGARH	Rameshwar Teli	BJP	Paban Singh Ghatowar	INC
ASSAM	GAUHATI	Smt. Bijoya Chakraborty	BJP	Birendra Prasad Baishya	AGP
ASSAM	JORHAT	Bijoy Krishna Handique	INC	Kamakhya Prasad Tasa	BJP
ASSAM	KALIABOR	Gourav Gogoi	INC	Jinti Gogoi	AAP
ASSAM	KARIMGANJ	Krishna Das	BJP	Radheshyam Biswas	AIUDF
ASSAM	KOKRAJHAR	Naba Kumar Sarania	Independent	Urkhao Gwra Brahma	Independent
ASSAM	LAKHIMPUR	Sarbananda Sonowal	BJP	Ranee Narah	INC
ASSAM	MANGALDOI	Ramen Deka	BJP	Kirip Chaliha	INC
ASSAM	NAWGONG	Jonjonali Baruah	INC	Rajen Gohain	BJP
ASSAM	SILCHAR	Kabindra Purkayastha	BJP	Sushmita Dev	INC
ASSAM	TEZPUR	Joseph Toppo	AGP	Bhupen Kumar Borah	INC
MANIPUR	INNER MANIPUR	Rajkumar Ranjan Singh	BJP	Dr. Thokchom Meinya	INC
MANIPUR	OUTER MANIPUR	Thangso Baite	INC	Gangmumei Kamei	BJP
MEGHALAYA	SHILLONG	Paul Lyngdoh	UDP	Vincent H. Pala	INC
MEGHALAYA	TURA	Purno Agitok Sangma	NPP	Daryl William Ch Momin	INC
MIZORAM	MIZORAM	Robert Romawia Royte	UDF	C. L. Ruala	INC
NAGALAND	NAGALAND	Neiphiu Rio	NPF	K. V. Pusa	INC
SIKKIM	SIKKIM	Prem Das Rai	SDF	Tek Nath Dhakal	Sikkim Krantikari Morcha
TRIPURA	TRIPURA EAST	Jitendra Choudhury	CPI(M)	Sachintra Debbarma	INC
TRIPURA	TRIPURA WEST	Sankar Prasad Datta	CPI(M)	Salil Saha	AAP

State-wise tally is as follows

	ARUNACHAL PRADESH	ASSAM	MANIPUR	MEGHALAYA	MIZORAM	NAGALAND	SIKKIM	TRIPURA	Grand Total
AGP		2							2
AIUDF		1							1
BJP	1	6	1						8
CPI(M)								2	2
INC	1	4	1						6
Independent		1							1
NPF						1			1
NPP				1					1
SDF							1		1
UDF					1				1
UDP				1					1
Grand Total	2	14	2	2	1	1	1	2	25

BJP would have 8 seats out of this region, and Congress would have 6.