Friday, May 2, 2014

Maharashtra

Maharashtra was quite an interesting state to analyse due to the Sena vs MNS fights. After Bal Thackeray's death in 2012, it might seem like Shiv Sena is not the force it used to be, but thanks to their partnership with BJP, they sure will ride on the wave. Raj Thackeray of MNS though not in an alliance with the BJP has fielded candidates in only 2 constituencies where BJP is contesting, and has also indicated his support to Modi. I see the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance winning at least 33 of the seats. I might have underestimated MNS' strength to just 1 win, but they can certainly win at least 2 more. There are several interesting contests in this state -

  • Pune - More than 1 lakh voters' names went missing in Pune, and it is to be seen if repolls are held. Kalmadi was denied the Congress ticket and the Congress contestant is not as powerful. It remains to be seen if MNS will play a larger role this time around, having placed third in 2009. I see it as a contest between BJP's Shirole and MNS's Paigude.
  • Raver - Movie material story in this constituency where the BJP candidate is a 26-year old woman, Raksha Khadase, whose husband went into a depression and shot himself in 2010 because he lost a legislative council election to a Manish Jain. Raksha is now tipped to beat Manish in this election and ensure her husband's soul rests in peace
  • Amravati - In this constituency sitting Shiv Sena MP Adsul has lodged a complaint with the EC because more than 40000 names(primarily SS supporters) had been deleted, giving NCP a huge edge. Navneet, just 28 is a former actress and wife of MLA Ravi Rana. It will be a close fight though
  • Baramati - A stronghold of the Pawars. Supriya Sule, daughter of Sharad Pawar is contesting in this constituency where neither BJP nor Shiv Sena has even fielded a candidate of their own
  • Dhule - AAP's Ansari N. Ahmed walked 50km to file his nominations and became a sensation among villagers in this constituency. It would be interesting to see if he can win against the likes of BJP's Bhamare and Congress's Amrishbhai Patel
  • Gadchiroli - A Maoist hotbed, naxals had threatened people not to turn up for the polls and 1 cop even died in firing on poll day. Despite all this, the constituency has seen a near 70% turnout. Will be a close call here, but I predict a win for Ashok Nete of BJP
  • Maval - Sitting MLA Laxman Jagtap refused NCP's ticket and decided to contest from Peasants and Workers Party. It will be a tough contest between Jagtap and NCP's Narwekar who was an ex-Shiv Sena member. MNS has also given its strong support to Laxman Jagtap
  • Mumbai North - Last elections in 2009, Congress's Nirupam won by a margin of 5000 votes. This year he would find it much tougher to win against BJP's Gopal Shetty. Also contesting is AAP's Satish Jain, a post-graduate from the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Bangalore worked in the financial sector for 18 years in firms including Morgan Stanley and HDFC.
  • Mumbai North Central - The Battle of the Daughters - Sunil Dutt's daughter Priya has won both the previous LS elections by huge margins, but will face a tough fight from Poonam, Pramod Mahajan's daughter. There has been growing dissent within the Congress ranks and since there is no MNS candidate contesting, Poonam will have a good chance
  • Mumbai North East - Congress's sitting MP Sanjay Patil will find it tough to win a second time, in this high profile battle where BJP has fielded Kirit Somaiya and AAP has fielded Medha Patkar
  • Mumbai South - One of the Mumbai constituencies where the Muslim votes could turn decisive against the NDA alliance. 2-time sitting MP but has been accused of amassing wealth and not caring for the constituency. But since Marathi votes are expected to be split between Sena and MNS, this gives Congress's Milind Deora the edge. AAP's Meera Sanyal would also be a major splitter,  but nothing more
  • Nagpur - Though former BJP President Gadkari is contesting in Nagpur, it is not an easy win for him due to the high population of minorities who are expected to be siding with Congress
  • Nandurbar - Nandurbar has remained a Congress bastion and Manikrao Gavit is seeking a record tenth term, but for the first time villagers are seeing someone other than the Gandhis as a leader. BJP's Heena, daughter of NCP MLA and former member of the Prithviraj Chavan cabinet Vijaykumar Gavit will pull off a coup if she wins here
  • Palghar - In Palghar, the strongest party - BVA(Bahujan Vikas Party), is a local party run by a polite  strongman, Hitendra Thakur. Congress, in fact, had abjectly bowed down to Thakur’s demands and withdrew its nominee, Rajendra Gavit, who is a state minister.  BVA is expected to retain this seat in all likelihood
  • Raigad - Sitting MP Anant Geete of Shiv Sena won in 2009 with the support of PWP. Also, Geete's posters include Modi instead of Bal Thackeray which is not expected to bode well with Thackeray followers. This time around, with MNS supporting PWP, the scales are expected to tilt in Kadam's favor
  • Satara - Expected to be a easy win for Bhonsale, who's a descendent of Shivaji
The constituency-wise predictions are as follows-



NoConstituencyPredicted WinnerPartyOther Top 2 CandidateParty
1AHMEDNAGARDilipkumar Mansukhlal GandhiBJPRajeev Appasaheb RajaleNCP
2AKOLASanjay Shyamrao DhotreBJPAmbedkar Prakash YashwantBRP-BMS
3AMRAVATINavneet Ravi RanaNCPAdsul Anandrao VithobaShiv Sena
4AURANGABADChandrakant Bhaurao KhaireShiv SenaPatil Nitin SureshINC
5BARAMATISupriya SuleNCPMahadeo Jagannath JankarRSP
6BEEDGopinathrao Munde PandurangBJPDhas Suresh RamchandraNCP
7BHANDARA-GONDIYAPraful Patel ManoharbhaiNCPNanabhau Falgunrao PatoleBJP
8BHIWANDIPatil Vishwanath RamchandraINCSuresh Gopinath MhatreMNS
9BULDHANAPrataprao Ganpatrao JadhavShiv SenaIngle Krushanarao GanpatraoNCP
10CHANDRAPURAhir Hansraj GangaramBJPDeotale Sanjay WamanraoINC
11DHULEBhamare Subhash RamraoBJPAnsari Nihal AhmedAAP
12DINDORIHarishchandra Deoram ChavanBJPBharati Pravin PawarNCP
13GADCHIROLI-CHIMURAshok Mahadeorao NeteBJPDr Namdeo UsendiINC
14HATKANANGLERaju ShettySWPKallappa Baburao AwadeINC
15HINGOLISubhash Bapurao WankhedeShiv SenaRajeev Shankarrao SatavINC
16JALGAONA.T. Nana PatilBJPAnnasaheb Dr.Satish Bhaskarrao PatilNCP
17JALNARaosaheb Dadarao DanveBJPVilas Keshavrao AutadeINC
18KALYANDr.Shrikant Eknath ShindeShiv SenaPramod (Raju) Ratan PatilMNS
19KOLHAPURSanjay Sadashiv MandalikBJPDhananjay Bhimrao MahadikNCP
20LATURDr. Sunil Baliram GayakwadBJPBansode Dattatray GunderaoINC
21MADHAMohite Patil Vijaysinh ShankarraoINCSadabhau Ramchandra KhotSWP
22MAVALLaxman Pandurang JagtapPWPIRahul Suresh NarwekarNCP
23MUMBAI NORTHGopal Chinayya ShettyBJPSanjay Brijkishorlal NirupamINC
24MUMBAI NORTH CENTRALSmt. Poonam MahajanBJPSmt. Priya Sunil DuttINC
25MUMBAI NORTH EASTDr. Kirit SomaiyaBJPMedha PatkarAAP
26MUMBAI NORTH WESTGajanan Chandrakant KirtikarShiv SenaGurudas Vasant KamatINC
27MUMBAI SOUTHMilind DeoraINCBala NandgaonkarMNS
28MUMBAI SOUTH CENTRALRahul Ramesh ShewaleShiv SenaEknath M. GaikwadINC
29NAGPURNitin GadkariBJPVilas MuttemwarINC
30NANDEDAshok Shankarrao ChavanINCD.B. PatilBJP
31NANDURBARManikrao Hodlya GavitINCHeena Vijay Kumar GavitBJP
32NASHIKPradeep PawarMNSHemant Tukaram GodseShiv Sena
33OSMANABADRavindra Vishwanath GaikwadShiv SenaPadmasinha Bajirao PatilNCP
34PALGHARBaliram Sukur JadhavBVAChintaman Navasha WangaBJP
35PARBHANISanjay JadhavShiv SenaBhambale Vijay ManikraoNCP
36PUNEAnil ShiroleBJPDeepak Natharam PaigudeMNS
37RAIGADRameshbhai KadamPWPITatkare Sunil DattatreyNCP
38RAMTEKKrupal Balaji TumaneShiv SenaMukul WasnikINC
39RATNAGIRI SINDHUDURGVinayak Bhaurao RautShiv SenaDr Nilesh Narayan RaneINC
40RAVERRaksha Nikhil KhadaseBJPManishdada JainNCP
41SANGLISanjaykaka PatilBJPPratik PatilINC
42SATARAUdayanraje Pratapsinha BhonsaleNCPAshok Waman GaikwadRPI
43SHIRDILokhande Sadashiv KisanShiv SenaBhausaheb Rajaram WakchaureINC
44SHIRURAdhalrao Shivaji DattatreyShiv SenaNikam Devdatta JaywantNCP
45SOLAPURSushil Kumar ShindeINCSharad BansodeBJP
46THANERajan Baburao VichareShiv SenaSanjeev Ganesh NaikNCP
47WARDHARamdas Chandrabhanji TadasBJPMeghe Sagar DattatrayaINC
48YAVATMAL-WASHIMShivajirao MogheINCBhavna GawliBJP

The seats tally would be as follows

PartySeats
BJP19
Shiv Sena13
INC7
NCP4
PWPI2
MNS1
BVA1
SWP1
Total48
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