At the end of the historic elections which saw BJP emerge the single biggest party with a thumping majority, nobody can tell me now that I was wrong in being favorable to BJP, or was giving undue benefit of doubt. In fact I should only have been more favorable to BJP. What happened in UP has no precedent. Though I knew 42 was a little on the lower end, I never thought they would cross 70. Amit Shah was truly a master strategist.
ADMK is another story altogether. I thoroughly underestimated the Amma tsunami. If only she had more seats in the state, she could have been the 2nd largest party.
If pre-elections, my work was research, post-elections, it was analytics. For those of you interested in doing an evaluation of my predictions, here's the brief.
The accuracy of my state-wise seats prediction is as follows-
If I count the number of seats where the actual winner was at least in my Top 2, then the count increases to 484, which is 89%. The below table would give a detailed picture of where I went wrong
Actual results show a +50 for NDA and -30 for UPA and -20 for Others. Such a stark indication of where I went wrong. It is clear that many votes that I had predicted for Congress/BSP/SP have gone to NDA.
ADMK is another story altogether. I thoroughly underestimated the Amma tsunami. If only she had more seats in the state, she could have been the 2nd largest party.
If pre-elections, my work was research, post-elections, it was analytics. For those of you interested in doing an evaluation of my predictions, here's the brief.
The accuracy of my state-wise seats prediction is as follows-
| State | Total Seats | Correctly predicted | Wrongly Predicted | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| ARUNACHAL PRADESH | 2 | 2 | 100% | |
| ASSAM | 14 | 8 | 6 | 57% |
| BIHAR | 40 | 21 | 19 | 53% |
| CHANDIGARH | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| CHHATTISGARH | 11 | 9 | 2 | 82% |
| DADRA AND NAGAR HAVELI | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| DAMAN AND DIU | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| DELHI | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% |
| GOA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| GUJARAT | 26 | 24 | 2 | 92% |
| HARYANA | 10 | 7 | 3 | 70% |
| HIMACHAL PRADESH | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% |
| JAMMU AND KASHMIR | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| JHARKHAND | 14 | 9 | 5 | 64% |
| KARNATAKA | 28 | 16 | 12 | 57% |
| KERALA | 20 | 14 | 6 | 70% |
| LAKSHADWEEP | 1 | 1 | 0% | |
| MADHYA PRADESH | 29 | 28 | 1 | 97% |
| MAHARASHTRA | 48 | 35 | 13 | 73% |
| MANIPUR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| MEGHALAYA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| MIZORAM | 1 | 1 | 0% | |
| NAGALAND | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| ORISSA | 21 | 16 | 5 | 76% |
| PUDUCHERRY | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| PUNJAB | 13 | 5 | 8 | 38% |
| RAJASTHAN | 25 | 23 | 2 | 92% |
| SEEMANDHRA | 25 | 16 | 9 | 64% |
| SIKKIM | 1 | 1 | 100% | |
| TAMIL NADU | 39 | 20 | 19 | 51% |
| TELANGANA | 17 | 10 | 7 | 59% |
| TRIPURA | 2 | 2 | 100% | |
| UTTAR PRADESH | 80 | 49 | 31 | 61% |
| UTTARAKHAND | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% |
| WEST BENGAL | 42 | 27 | 15 | 64% |
| Grand Total | 543 | 367 | 176 | 68% |
If I count the number of seats where the actual winner was at least in my Top 2, then the count increases to 484, which is 89%. The below table would give a detailed picture of where I went wrong
NDA
|
UPA
|
Others
| |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Total Seats | Predicted | Actual | Predicted | Actual | Predicted | Actual |
| ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ARUNACHAL PRADESH | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| ASSAM | 14 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| BIHAR | 40 | 21 | 31 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| CHANDIGARH | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CHHATTISGARH | 11 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DADRA AND NAGAR HAVELI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DAMAN AND DIU | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DELHI | 7 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| GOA | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GUJARAT | 26 | 24 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HARYANA | 10 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| HIMACHAL PRADESH | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JAMMU AND KASHMIR | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| JHARKHAND | 14 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| KARNATAKA | 28 | 14 | 17 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 2 |
| KERALA | 20 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| LAKSHADWEEP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| MADHYA PRADESH | 29 | 26 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| MAHARASHTRA | 48 | 33 | 42 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| MANIPUR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| MEGHALAYA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| MIZORAM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| NAGALAND | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ORISSA | 21 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 20 |
| PUDUCHERRY | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PUNJAB | 13 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| RAJASTHAN | 25 | 23 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| SEEMANDHRA | 25 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 8 |
| SIKKIM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TAMIL NADU | 39 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 37 |
| TELANGANA | 17 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| TRIPURA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| UTTAR PRADESH | 80 | 42 | 73 | 5 | 2 | 33 | 5 |
| UTTARAKHAND | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WEST BENGAL | 42 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 36 |
| Grand Total | 543 | 286 | 336 | 86 | 56 | 171 | 151 |
Actual results show a +50 for NDA and -30 for UPA and -20 for Others. Such a stark indication of where I went wrong. It is clear that many votes that I had predicted for Congress/BSP/SP have gone to NDA.
If you notice that the predicted count for NDA, it is 286, rather than 288 which I had posted earlier. This is because I had wrongly classified a party into the NDA alliance in UP. Also some sites show a NDA tally of 337, I am not sure how. Some show TRS to have won 12 seats, when they in fact have won only 11. If anybody can point out the difference, I'll be grateful. For the complete list of constituencies and predictions, click here
The party-wise tally comparison below will help -
| Party | Seats Prediction | Seats Won |
|---|---|---|
| BJP | 234 | 282 |
| INC | 65 | 44 |
| AITC | 23 | 34 |
| ADMK | 20 | 37 |
| BSP | 18 | 0 |
| BJD | 15 | 20 |
| YSRCP | 15 | 9 |
| SP | 13 | 5 |
| Shiv Sena | 13 | 18 |
| TDP | 13 | 16 |
| RJD | 10 | 4 |
| SAD | 8 | 4 |
| CPI(M) | 9 | 9 |
| TRS | 7 | 11 |
| NCP | 6 | 6 |
| DMK | 6 | 0 |
| Independent | 6 | 3 |
| JD(U) | 5 | 2 |
| PMK | 5 | 1 |
| RSP | 3 | 1 |
| JD(S) | 3 | 2 |
| DMDK | 2 | 0 |
| JVM(P) | 2 | 0 |
| PWPI | 2 | 0 |
| AGP | 2 | 0 |
| LJP | 2 | 6 |
| RLD | 2 | 0 |
| IUML | 2 | 2 |
| CPI | 2 | 1 |
| AAP | 2 | 4 |
| JKPDP | 2 | 3 |
| MDMK | 1 | 0 |
| KEC(M) | 1 | 1 |
| MNS | 1 | 0 |
| NPF | 1 | 1 |
| SWP | 1 | 1 |
| NPP | 1 | 1 |
| UDP | 1 | 0 |
| JBSP | 1 | 0 |
| SDF | 1 | 1 |
| Puthiya Tamilagam | 1 | 0 |
| KMDK | 1 | 0 |
| AIMIM | 1 | 1 |
| INLD | 1 | 2 |
| HJC | 1 | 0 |
| UDF | 1 | 0 |
| JKN | 1 | 0 |
| VCK | 1 | 0 |
| AIUDF | 1 | 3 |
| BVA | 1 | 0 |
| All India N.R. Congress | 1 | 1 |
So where did I go wrong in each of the states -
- Assam - I had predicted wins for AGP's Phani Bhusan Choudhary and Joseph Toppo, but they managed only 4th behind AIUDF,BJP and Congress
- Bihar - I had underestimated BJP and overestimated JD(U). Out of 5 seats I predicted for JD(U) only one was right - Kaushlendra Kumar in Nalanda. For the other seat that JD(U) won - Purnia, I had predicted BJP
- Chhattisgarh - Though the prediction tally matches, I got two seats interchanged - Durg and Korba. But I am happy Chandu Lal Sahu beat Ajit Jogi in Mahasamund
- Delhi - I got only North West Delhi wrong where I thought Rakhi Birla would make it, but Udit Raj ensured a clean sweep for BJP
- Gujarat - I should have blindly given all constituencies to BJP. My benefit of doubt to Congress in Dahod and Sabarkantha went wrong. Shankersinh Waghela put up a relatively close fight though, losing by only 80000 votes
- Haryana - Yogendra Yadav was a bad bad prediction here. Should have corrected it based on the feedback I received. One other wrong predicttion was Naveen Jindal who lost from Kurukshetra to Rajkumar Saini
- Jammu and Kashmir - I thought Farooq Abdullah and Ghulam Nabi Azad would win comfortably but JKPDP and BJP proved to be stronger forces. Ladakh was a tough constituency to predict anyway as the top 4 candidates were separated by only 5000 votes, and the winning margin was 36. I had predicted a win for Syed Kazim who was leading initially but finished third in the end
- Jharkhand - I had overestimated JVM(P), especially Babu Lal Marandi, who came only 3rd against Shibu Soren and Sunil Soren. JMM still has a presence in this state
- Karnataka - BJP exceeded expectations here, and I had overestimated Congress, which won only 4 out of 9 seats I had predicted wins for them, but they also won 5 seats where I had predicted BJP or JD(S). The biggest surprise was Veerappa Moily winning against H.D.Kumaraswamy in Chikkballapur, where BJP's Bache Gowda came second
- Kerala - Congress's biggest state in terms of seats won, BJP still hasn't sent a MP from this state in its history. I had made some terrible predictions here, especially in Attingal and Ernakulam where A.Sampath and K.V.Thomas were clear winners. Congress's Siddique gave a tough fight to Karunakaran in Kasaragod though.
- Lakshadweep - Mohammed Faizal of NCP beat Congress's Hamdullah Sayeed by a close margin
- Madhya Pradesh - Would consider this state my most accurate prediction. Got just one seat wrong here, which was Sidhi where BJP's Riti Pathak beat Congress's Indrajeet Kumar by around 80000 votes
- Maharashtra - Again, I had underestimated the BJP-Shiv Sena Alliance, and probably gave too much weightage to parties like MNS and PWPI. Out of 13 seats that I got wrong, 11 were won by BJP/Shiv Sena
- Manipur - BJP didn't win the Inner Manipur seat as I predicted. They could come only a distant third behind Congress and Left
- Orissa - I underestimated BJD here. Almost a clean sweep for them. But the only seat BJP won was a correct prediction - Jual Oram in Sundargarh
- Punjab - One of my worst predictions, as I totally discounted AAP's strength here and didn't expect Arun Jaitley to lose
- Rajasthan - Again, this is one state where I should have blindly given benefit of doubt to BJP, and I shouldn't have given weightage to Jaswant Singh. Also I should thank my wife for getting Ajmer right. I had initially predicted Sachin Pilot would win, but asked my wife's opinion for this seat after giving a background. She said the people want a change and would vote for BJP. Look at the results in that seat. Pilot didn't even take off. He lost by more than 2 lakh votes. Moral of the story: Always listen to your wife
- Seemandhra - This state was predominantly a contest between YSRCP and TDP, and I had overestimated YSRCP based on the reports and the perceived support for Jagan and YSR's legacy
- Tamil Nadu - My worst prediction came for my home state, as I clearly didn't see such a domination by Amma. Almost all the seats I had predicted for NDA/DMK went to ADMK, except Anbumani Ramadoss of PMK. And I made one wrong revision by giving Kanniyakumari to ADMK, while my first choice of BJP's Radhakrishnan won it
- Telangana - I had overestimated Congress here as they won only 2 out of the 5 seats I predicted for them. TRS won 11 instead of the 7 I had predicted for them
- Uttar Pradesh - Well, I can take solace from the fact that nobody could have predicted such a phenomenal showing here by BJP. The only seats BJP lost were the family seats of SP and Congress. There was no Mayawati factor at all in the end
- Nainital - Nainital was the one miss as I had predicted a Congress win
- West Bengal - I was told my BJP tally of 5 was too optimistic, and I was told correctly. But the biggest loser here was the Left, whose Basudeb Acharya lost to Moon Moon Sen. That shows the strength of Trinamool
That's all folks. I thank all of you who actively followed my blog and provided encouraging feedback. Hope this activity was relevant for you all, and I sure as hell believe I will be more interested in politics henceforth. Hoping the BJP government under Modi will live up to the hype and hope, and redefines India's potential in the global landscape
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