Predictions Self-Appraisal

At the end of the historic elections which saw BJP emerge the single biggest party with a thumping majority, nobody can tell me now that I was wrong in being favorable to BJP, or was giving undue benefit of doubt. In fact I should only have been more favorable to BJP. What happened in UP has no precedent. Though I knew 42 was a little on the lower end, I never thought they would cross 70. Amit Shah was truly a master strategist.

ADMK is another story altogether. I thoroughly underestimated the Amma tsunami. If only she had more seats in the state, she could have been the 2nd largest party.

If pre-elections, my work was research, post-elections, it was analytics. For those of you interested in doing an evaluation of my predictions, here's the brief.


The accuracy of my state-wise seats prediction is as follows-

State	Total Seats	Correctly predicted	Wrongly Predicted	Accuracy
ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS	1	1		100%
ARUNACHAL PRADESH	2	2		100%
ASSAM	14	8	6	57%
BIHAR	40	21	19	53%
CHANDIGARH	1	1		100%
CHHATTISGARH	11	9	2	82%
DADRA AND NAGAR HAVELI	1	1		100%
DAMAN AND DIU	1	1		100%
DELHI	7	6	1	86%
GOA	2	1	1	50%
GUJARAT	26	24	2	92%
HARYANA	10	7	3	70%
HIMACHAL PRADESH	4	3	1	75%
JAMMU AND KASHMIR	6	3	3	50%
JHARKHAND	14	9	5	64%
KARNATAKA	28	16	12	57%
KERALA	20	14	6	70%
LAKSHADWEEP	1		1	0%
MADHYA PRADESH	29	28	1	97%
MAHARASHTRA	48	35	13	73%
MANIPUR	2	1	1	50%
MEGHALAYA	2	1	1	50%
MIZORAM	1		1	0%
NAGALAND	1	1		100%
ORISSA	21	16	5	76%
PUDUCHERRY	1	1		100%
PUNJAB	13	5	8	38%
RAJASTHAN	25	23	2	92%
SEEMANDHRA	25	16	9	64%
SIKKIM	1	1		100%
TAMIL NADU	39	20	19	51%
TELANGANA	17	10	7	59%
TRIPURA	2	2		100%
UTTAR PRADESH	80	49	31	61%
UTTARAKHAND	5	4	1	80%
WEST BENGAL	42	27	15	64%
Grand Total	543	367	176	68%

If I count the number of seats where the actual winner was at least in my Top 2, then the count increases to 484, which is 89%. The below table would give a detailed picture of where I went wrong

		NDA		UPA		Others
State	Total Seats	Predicted	Actual	Predicted	Actual	Predicted	Actual
ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
ARUNACHAL PRADESH	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
ASSAM	14	6	7	4	3	4	4
BIHAR	40	21	31	14	7	5	2
CHANDIGARH	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
CHHATTISGARH	11	10	10	1	1	0	0
DADRA AND NAGAR HAVELI	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
DAMAN AND DIU	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
DELHI	7	6	7	0	0	1	0
GOA	2	1	2	1	0	0	0
GUJARAT	26	24	26	2	0	0	0
HARYANA	10	6	7	2	1	2	2
HIMACHAL PRADESH	4	3	4	1	0	0	0
JAMMU AND KASHMIR	6	1	3	2	0	3	3
JHARKHAND	14	10	12	0	0	4	2
KARNATAKA	28	14	17	11	9	3	2
KERALA	20	1	0	9	11	10	9
LAKSHADWEEP	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
MADHYA PRADESH	29	26	27	3	2	0	0
MAHARASHTRA	48	33	42	11	6	4	0
MANIPUR	2	1	0	1	2	0	0
MEGHALAYA	2	1	1	0	1	1	0
MIZORAM	1	1	0	0	1	0	0
NAGALAND	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
ORISSA	21	3	1	3	0	15	20
PUDUCHERRY	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
PUNJAB	13	11	6	2	3	0	4
RAJASTHAN	25	23	25	1	0	1	0
SEEMANDHRA	25	10	17	0	0	15	8
SIKKIM	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
TAMIL NADU	39	12	2	0	0	27	37
TELANGANA	17	4	2	5	2	8	13
TRIPURA	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
UTTAR PRADESH	80	42	73	5	2	33	5
UTTARAKHAND	5	4	5	1	0	0	0
WEST BENGAL	42	5	2	5	4	32	36
Grand Total	543	286	336	86	56	171	151

Actual results show a +50 for NDA and -30 for UPA and -20 for Others. Such a stark indication of where I went wrong. It is clear that many votes that I had predicted for Congress/BSP/SP have gone to NDA. 

If you notice that the predicted count for NDA, it is 286, rather than 288 which I had posted earlier. This is because I had wrongly classified a party into the NDA alliance in UP. Also some sites show a NDA tally of 337, I am not sure how. Some show TRS to have won 12 seats, when they in fact have won only 11. If anybody can point out the difference, I'll be grateful. For the complete list of constituencies and predictions, click here

The party-wise tally comparison below will help -

Party	Seats Prediction	Seats Won
BJP	234	282
INC	65	44
AITC	23	34
ADMK	20	37
BSP	18	0
BJD	15	20
YSRCP	15	9
SP	13	5
Shiv Sena	13	18
TDP	13	16
RJD	10	4
SAD	8	4
CPI(M)	9	9
TRS	7	11
NCP	6	6
DMK	6	0
Independent	6	3
JD(U)	5	2
PMK	5	1
RSP	3	1
JD(S)	3	2
DMDK	2	0
JVM(P)	2	0
PWPI	2	0
AGP	2	0
LJP	2	6
RLD	2	0
IUML	2	2
CPI	2	1
AAP	2	4
JKPDP	2	3
MDMK	1	0
KEC(M)	1	1
MNS	1	0
NPF	1	1
SWP	1	1
NPP	1	1
UDP	1	0
JBSP	1	0
SDF	1	1
Puthiya Tamilagam	1	0
KMDK	1	0
AIMIM	1	1
INLD	1	2
HJC	1	0
UDF	1	0
JKN	1	0
VCK	1	0
AIUDF	1	3
BVA	1	0
All India N.R. Congress	1	1

So where did I go wrong in each of the states - 

• Assam - I had predicted wins for AGP's Phani Bhusan Choudhary and Joseph Toppo, but they managed only 4th behind AIUDF,BJP and Congress
• Bihar - I had underestimated BJP and overestimated JD(U). Out of 5 seats I predicted for JD(U) only one was right - Kaushlendra Kumar in Nalanda. For the other seat that JD(U) won - Purnia, I had predicted BJP
• Chhattisgarh - Though the prediction tally matches, I got two seats interchanged - Durg and Korba. But I am happy Chandu Lal Sahu beat Ajit Jogi in Mahasamund
• Delhi - I got only North West Delhi wrong where I thought Rakhi Birla would make it, but Udit Raj ensured a clean sweep for BJP
• Gujarat - I should have blindly given all constituencies to BJP. My benefit of doubt to Congress in Dahod and Sabarkantha went wrong. Shankersinh Waghela put up a relatively close fight though, losing by only 80000 votes
• Haryana - Yogendra Yadav was a bad bad prediction here. Should have corrected it based on the feedback I received. One other wrong predicttion was Naveen Jindal who lost from Kurukshetra to Rajkumar Saini
• Jammu and Kashmir - I thought Farooq Abdullah and Ghulam Nabi Azad would win comfortably but JKPDP and BJP proved to be stronger forces. Ladakh was a tough constituency to predict anyway as the top 4 candidates were separated by only 5000 votes, and the winning margin was 36. I had predicted a win for Syed Kazim who was leading initially but finished third in the end
• Jharkhand - I had overestimated JVM(P), especially Babu Lal Marandi, who came only 3rd against Shibu Soren and Sunil Soren. JMM still has a presence in this state
• Karnataka - BJP exceeded expectations here, and I had overestimated Congress, which won only 4 out of 9 seats I had predicted wins for them, but they also won 5 seats where I had predicted BJP or JD(S). The biggest surprise was Veerappa Moily winning against H.D.Kumaraswamy in Chikkballapur, where BJP's Bache Gowda came second
• Kerala - Congress's biggest state in terms of seats won, BJP still hasn't sent a MP from this state in its history. I had made some terrible predictions here, especially in Attingal and Ernakulam where A.Sampath and K.V.Thomas were clear winners. Congress's Siddique gave a tough fight to Karunakaran in Kasaragod though.
• Lakshadweep - Mohammed Faizal of NCP beat Congress's Hamdullah Sayeed by a close margin
• Madhya Pradesh - Would consider this state my most accurate prediction. Got just one seat wrong here, which was Sidhi where BJP's Riti Pathak beat Congress's Indrajeet Kumar by around 80000 votes
• Maharashtra - Again, I had underestimated the BJP-Shiv Sena Alliance, and probably gave too much weightage to parties like MNS and PWPI. Out of 13 seats that I got wrong, 11 were won by BJP/Shiv Sena
• Manipur - BJP didn't win the Inner Manipur seat as I predicted. They could come only a distant third behind Congress and Left
• Orissa - I underestimated BJD here. Almost a clean sweep for them. But the only seat BJP won was a correct prediction - Jual Oram in Sundargarh
• Punjab - One of my worst predictions, as I totally discounted AAP's strength here and didn't expect Arun Jaitley to lose
• Rajasthan - Again, this is one state where I should have blindly given benefit of doubt to BJP, and I shouldn't have given weightage to Jaswant Singh. Also I should thank my wife for getting Ajmer right. I had initially predicted Sachin Pilot would win, but asked my wife's opinion for this seat after giving a background. She said the people want a change and would vote for BJP. Look at the results in that seat. Pilot didn't even take off. He lost by more than 2 lakh votes. Moral of the story: Always listen to your wife
• Seemandhra - This state was predominantly a contest between YSRCP and TDP, and I had overestimated YSRCP based on the reports and the perceived support for Jagan and YSR's legacy
• Tamil Nadu - My worst prediction came for my home state, as I clearly didn't see such a domination by Amma. Almost all the seats I had predicted for NDA/DMK went to ADMK, except Anbumani Ramadoss of PMK. And I made one wrong revision by giving Kanniyakumari to ADMK, while my first choice of BJP's Radhakrishnan won it
• Telangana - I had overestimated Congress here as they won only 2 out of the 5 seats I predicted for them. TRS won 11 instead of the 7 I had predicted for them
• Uttar Pradesh - Well, I can take solace from the fact that nobody could have predicted such a phenomenal showing here by BJP. The only seats BJP lost were the family seats of SP and Congress. There was no Mayawati factor at all in the end
• Nainital - Nainital was the one miss as I had predicted a Congress win
• West Bengal - I was told my BJP tally of 5 was too optimistic, and I was told correctly. But the biggest loser here was the Left, whose Basudeb Acharya lost to Moon Moon Sen. That shows the strength of Trinamool

That's all folks. I thank all of you who actively followed my blog and provided encouraging feedback. Hope this activity was relevant for you all, and I sure as hell believe I will be more interested in politics henceforth. Hoping the BJP government under Modi will live up to the hype and hope, and redefines India's potential in the global landscape

The Big Picture

At the end of this 20-day exercise, I have successfully analysed all 543 constituencies, though not in as much detail as I would have liked. The basis for the analysis, as I mentioned in my first post has been media reports, past performance of parties and what you could call gut feeling based on the overall trend. The primary sources for this were myneta.info, elections.in, various media reports available through google news search.There has been no personal bias or preference attached to the predictions. If it were, the results would altogether be different, and probably 100% wrong. What I expected out of this exercise is to gain an understanding of the political scenario in the whole country and to an extent the key factors in each state. I must say it has been an eye-opener and even though I know my opinions on politics matter to nobody, it sure was a good educative time pass.

Ok, let me cut the crap and get to the chase. Here's the summary table at the end of all the analysis.

State	NDA	Others	UPA	Seats
ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS	1			1
ARUNACHAL PRADESH	1		1	2
ASSAM	6	4	4	14
BIHAR	21	5	14	40
CHANDIGARH	1			1
CHHATTISGARH	10		1	11
DADRA AND NAGAR HAVELI	1			1
DAMAN AND DIU	1			1
DELHI	6	1		7
GOA	1		1	2
GUJARAT	24		2	26
HARYANA	6	2	2	10
HIMACHAL PRADESH	3		1	4
JAMMU AND KASHMIR	1	3	2	6
JHARKHAND	10	4		14
KARNATAKA	14	3	11	28
KERALA	1	10	9	20
LAKSHADWEEP			1	1
MADHYA PRADESH	26		3	29
MAHARASHTRA	33	4	11	48
MANIPUR	1		1	2
MEGHALAYA	1	1		2
MIZORAM	1			1
NAGALAND	1			1
ORISSA	3	15	3	21
PUDUCHERRY	1			1
PUNJAB	11		2	13
RAJASTHAN	23	1	1	25
SEEMANDHRA	10	15		25
SIKKIM		1		1
TAMIL NADU	12	27		39
TELANGANA	4	8	5	17
TRIPURA		2		2
UTTAR PRADESH	44	31	5	80
UTTARAKHAND	4		1	5
WEST BENGAL	5	32	5	42
Grand Total	288	169	86	543

The NDA and UPA candidate classifications were made based on what is in the public domain(Read Wikipedia) and doesn't take into account potential NDA/UPA candidates.

If we look at the leading parties nationally based on my predictions, this is what you're looking at

Party	Seats
BJP	234
INC	66
AITC	23
ADMK	20
BSP	18
BJD	15
YSRCP	15
Shiv Sena	13
SP	13
TDP	13
RJD	10
CPI(M)	9
SAD	8
TRS	7
CPM	7
DMK	6
Independent	6
NCP	5
JD(U)	5
PMK	5
RSP	3
JD(S)	3
PWPI	2
IUML	2
LJP	2
RLD	2
DMDK	2
AAP	2
AGP	2
JVM(P)	2
JKPDP	2
KMDK	1
SDF	1
VCK	1
INLD	1
KEC(M)	1
NPF	1
UDF	1
NPP	1
MNS	1
AIUDF	1
CPI	1
Puthiya Tamilagam	1
SWP	1
JBSP	1
AIMIM	1
All India N.R. Congress	1
UDP	1
BVA	1
MDMK	1
JKN	1
HJC	1

So here's my prediction on the predictions. NDA's share could be exaggerated in some states(WB, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan to name a few) , and underestimated in some states(Seemandhra, Karnataka, UP to name a few). So overall, BJP's count of 234 and NDA's count of 288 will be +/- 10 is what I feel.

I have revised the Tamil Nadu predictions after more feedback and inputs since this was the first state I analysed. Yet I have given ADMK only 20 which is still a low count compared to all the exit polls. But if my number ends up closer tomorrow, nothing like it.

So there you go. Fingers crossed for counting day! Click here for a list of mouth-watering contests to track tomorrow and here for the consolidated list of constituency-wise predictions.

Uttar Pradesh

Called a psephologist's nightmare, UP is always difficult to predict. So it is this year as well. Most opinion polls and now, the exit polls too put BJP as the leading party with at least 45 votes. As per my analysis, they can get a maximum of 45 votes because SP and BSP are still going strong in constituencies with their core support. But there are the two biggest battles of the country - Modi vs Kejriwal in Varanasi and Rahul Gandhi vs Smriti Irani vs Kumar Vishwas in Amethi. An upset in any of these have the potential to become international headlines. Only May 16 will tell.

Observations on the most interesting constituencies-

• Varanasi - The biggest battle of the country this year. Narendra Modi's announcement from here was on expected lines and should comfortably win from here, though  Kejri and his workers have campaigned really hard. Pulling off a surprise here is near impossible, but you never know what the UP voter thinks.
• Amethi - Rahul, having visited the booths of the constituency on polling day, created a flutter in the media that the Congress is nervous about winning this bastion of theirs. Could be the definitive seat of the year if Smriti Irani or Kumar Vishwas manage to wrest this stronghold from Congress. But most indications seem to tell "Not yet". The increased voter turnout(55% compared 42% in 2009) could be a sign of more anti-Congress votes, but they may not be enough to upstage Rahul
• Muzaffarnagar - It is appalling that both BJP and BSP have fielded members who had a role in the riots - Sanjeev Ballian and Qadir Rana in this constituency. Rana has complained to EC about bogus voting which is in favor of BJP. It is not really clear how the voters would vote here, and another important factor is that the voter turnout was 70%. Reports indicate that BJP stands to gain the most if Muslim votes get split, but it will be an unfortunate result.
• Pilibhit - Maneka Gandhi vacated her Aonla seat to constituency to escape the anger of the locals for lack of development there. She is expected to face a tough battle from SP's Budhsena Verma, but will clear the line thanks to the enormoust support for Modi in this town
• Sultanpur - Varun Gandhi has also vacated his constituency in Pilighit where he won after an inflammatory speech he made. Now, he is contesting in Sultanpur and calling himself the Sultan of Sultanpur, and is expected widely to win comfortably
• Faizabad - Home to Ayodhya, which is 5km away from Faizabad city, Modi's rally here became controversial for having used a picture of Ram. In the wake of some clashes that took place in 2012, and the perceived irresponsible attitude of the SP government, BJP looks to be the front-runner here
• Farrukhabad - It will be an interesting contest here for foreign minister Salman Khurshid, who is facing a major anti-incumbency problem which could see even Muslim votes go away from him to either BSP or BJP. It will be a triangular contest between the three parties
• Ghaziabad - It's the controversy king vs controversy queen in this constituency. BJP's V.K.Singh should be able to win against AAP's Shazia Ilmi
• Mathura - Interesting contest between Hema Malini and RLD chief Ajit Singh's son Jayant. Though Hema Malini hasn't struck the right chord through her speeches, the Modi wave is expected to go in her favor in this constituency where even loyal Jats are seen to be deserting Jayant Choudhary
• Mirzapur - Having lost by a small margin in 2009, BSP is expected to win this time from Mirzapur, a neighbouring constituency of Varanasi. BSP's Dhananjay Singh, who won from Jaunpur in 2009 faced many criminal charges and was dropped from the party this year and is contesting as an independent. This is only expected to help BSP as he will snatch some Kshatriya votes of the opponents
• Fatehpur Sikri - RLD leader Amar Singh decided to contest from this constituency in an attempt to woo Jat votes and has also brought in many Bollywood celebs to campaign for him. But BSP's Seema Upadhyay seems to be the strongest contender
• Rampur - Noor Bano is the widow of Rampur's Nawab and will pose a tough fight to BJP's Kumar Sarvesh Singh in this constituency which was won in 2009 by Mohammed Azharuddin
• Kaiserganj - This constituency could return to BJP for the first time after 1991 due to its candidate Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh who was earlier with SP, which is the dominant force here
• Firozabad - S.P.Singh Baghel, who defected from BSP to BJP has earned the wrath of Maya, who has issued a dictat to her supporters to do everything possible to defeat this traitor. Baghel, actually is one of the frontrunners in this Samajwadi Party bastion. The cross-voting could help SP retain this seat
• Gonda - 5-time MP Beni Prasad Verma will face a tougher challenge this year as the Brahmin votes in this constituency will be split between him and Kirti Vardhan Singh of BJP. Muslim votes are also going to be divided among the other contestants, making this a rare Congress vs BJP battle in the state
• Dhaurahra - BJP's Rekha is banking on a sympathy vote to see her through on a seat which came to her after the death of her husband Arun Kumar- a former block pramukh. In fact as per "The Indian Republic", she apparently doesn’t even speak much at rallies, she just folds her hands and cries. Her campaign managers, despite realising the immense value of the sympathy factor, wish their candidate would say a few words every now and then. “The Modi wave will work, but it would be good for the candidate to communicate with voters”, says one exasperated party worker. He also lets in that every time this has been conveyed to Rekha, she has responded with more tears.
• Etawah - Mulayam Singh Yadav's home constituency, but there has been a lot of public resentment against SP, so the candidate here has literally been pleading for votes and Mulayam is asking the people to save his respect. Whether they will remains to be seen

Apart from these, some high profile candidates who should register easy wins are Sonia Gandhi from Rae Bareli, Uma Bharti from Jhansi, Mulayam Singh Yadav from both Mainpuri and Azamgarh, Murli Manohar Joshi from Kanpur, Ajit Singh from Baghpat(not so sure)

My predictions for the 80 constituencies. Upfront disclaimer: This is the state where I predict my accuracy to be the lowest. Anything can happen in UP

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	AGRA	Narayan Singh	BSP	Dr. Ramshankar Katheria	BJP
2	AKBARPUR	Devendra Singh Bhole	BJP	Anil Shukla Warsi	BSP
3	ALIGARH	Satish Kumar Goutam	BJP	Dr. Arvind Kumar Singh	BSP
4	ALLAHABAD	Shyama Charan Gupta	BJP	Nand Gopal Gupta Nandi	INC
5	AMBEDKAR NAGAR	Rakesh Pandey	BSP	Hariom	BJP
6	AMETHI	Rahul Gandhi	INC	Smriti Irani	BJP
7	AMROHA	Kanwar Singh Tanwar	BJP	Farhat Hasan	BSP
8	AONLA	Dharmendra Kumar	BJP	Kunwar Sarvraj Singh	SP
9	AZAMGARH	Mulayam Singh Yadav	SP	Ramakant Yadav	BJP
10	BADAUN	Dharmendra Yadav	SP	Akmal Khan Alias Chaman	BSP
11	BAGHPAT	Ajit Singh	RLD	Satpal Singh	BJP
12	BAHRAICH	Sadhvi Savitri Bai Foole	BJP	Comando Kamal Kishor	INC
13	BALLIA	Neeraj Shekhar	SP	Bharat Singh	BJP
14	BANDA	Bhairon Prasad Mishra	BJP	R. K. Singh Patel	BSP
15	BANSGAON	Kamlesh Paswan	BJP	Sadal Prasad	BSP
16	BARABANKI	P. L. Punia	INC	Kamla Prasad Rawat	BSP
17	BAREILLY	Santosh Gangwar	BJP	Praveen Singh Aron	INC
18	BASTI	Ram Prasad Chaudhary	BSP	Harish Chandra	BJP
19	BHADOHI	Virendra Singh	BJP	Rakesh Dhar Tripathi	BSP
20	BIJNOR	Jaya Prada Nahata	RLD	Kunwar Bhartendra	BJP
21	BULANDSHAHR	Dr. Bhola Singh	BJP	Kamlesh	SP
22	CHANDAULI	Anil Kumar Maurya	BSP	Ramkishun	SP
23	DEORIA	Kalraj Mishra	BJP	Niyaj Ahmad	BSP
24	DHAURAHRA	Kuwar Jitin Prasad	INC	Rekha	BJP
25	DOMARIYAGANJ	Jagdambika Pal	BJP	Muhammad Muqeem	BSP
26	ETAH	Rajveer Singh	BJP	Devendra Singh Yadav	SP
27	ETAWAH	Ashok Kumar Doharey	BJP	Premdas Kateriya	SP
28	FAIZABAD	Lallu Singh	BJP	Jitendra Kumar Singh	BSP
29	FARRUKHABAD	Salman Khurshid	INC	Jaiveer Singh	BSP
30	FATEHPUR	Niranjan Jyoti	BJP	Afzal Siddiqui	BSP
31	FATEHPUR SIKRI	Ms Seema Upadhyay	BSP	Amar Singh	RLD
32	FIROZABAD	Akshay Yadav	SP	S.P. Singh Baghel	BJP
33	GAUTAM BUDHHA NAGAR	Satish Kumar	BSP	Dr. Mahesh Sharma	BJP
34	GHAZIABAD	General V.K. Singh	BJP	Shazia Ilmi	AAP
35	GHAZIPUR	Smt Shivkanya Kushwaha	SP	Manoj Sinha	BJP
36	GHOSI	Dara Singh Chauhan	BSP	Mukhtar Ansari	QED
37	GONDA	Kirti Vardhan Singh	BJP	Beni Prasad Verma	INC
38	GORAKHPUR	Adityanath	BJP	Ram Bhual Nishad	BSP
39	HAMIRPUR	Kunwar Pushpendra Singh Chandel	BJP	Rakesh Kumar Goswami	BSP
40	HARDOI	Usha Verma	SP	Anshul Verma	BJP
41	HATHRAS	Manoj Kumar Soni	BSP	Rajesh Kumar Diwaker	BJP
42	JALAUN	Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma	BJP	Brijlal Khabri	BSP
43	JAUNPUR	Subhash Pandey	BSP	Krishna Pratap	BJP
44	JHANSI	Uma Bharati	BJP	Anuradha Sharma	BSP
45	KAIRANA	Kanwar Hassan	BSP	Hukum Singh	BJP
46	KAISERGANJ	Brij Bhusan Sharan Singh	BJP	Vinod Kumar Alias Pandit Singh	SP
47	KANNAUJ	Dimple Yadav	SP	Subrat Pathak	BJP
48	KANPUR	Dr. Murali Manohar Joshi	BJP	Sriprakash Jaiswal	INC
49	KAUSHAMBI	Shailendra Kumar	SP	Vinod Kumar Sonkar	BJP
50	KHERI	Ajay Kumar	BJP	Zafarali Naqvi	INC
51	KUSHI NAGAR	Rajesh Pandey Urf Guddu	BJP	Kunwar Ratanjit Pratap Narain Singh	INC
52	LALGANJ	Neelam	BJP	Dr. Baliram	BSP
53	LUCKNOW	Rajnath Singh	BJP	Prof. Rita Bahuguna Joshi	INC
54	MACHHLISHAHR	Bholanath Alias B.P. Saroj	BSP	Tufani	SP
55	MAHARAJGANJ	Pankaj	BJP	Harsh Vardhan	INC
56	MAINPURI	Mulayam Singh Yadav	SP	Shatrughan Singh Chauhan	BJP
57	MATHURA	Hema Malini	BJP	Jayant Choudhary	RLD
58	MEERUT	Rajendra Aggarwal	BJP	Ms. Nagma	INC
59	MIRZAPUR	Samundra Bind	BSP	Surendra Singh Patel	SP
60	MISRIKH	Anju Bala	BJP	Ashok Kumar Rawat	BSP
61	MOHANLALGANJ	R.K Chaudhary	BSP	Sushila Saroj	SP
62	MORADABAD	Kunwar Sarvesh Singh	BJP	Begum Noor Bano	INC
63	MUZAFFARNAGAR	Dr. Sanjeev Balyan	BJP	Qadir Rana	BSP
64	NAGINA	Girish Chandra Jatav	BSP	Yashvir Singh	SP
65	PHULPUR	Kapil Muni Karwariya	BSP	Dharam Raj Singh Patel	SP
66	PILIBHIT	Maneka Gandhi	BJP	Budhsen Verma	SP
67	PRATAPGARH	Pramod Kumar Singh Patel	SP	Asif Nizamuddin Siddique	BSP
68	RAE BARELI	Sonia Gandhi	INC	Ajay Agrawal	BJP
69	RAMPUR	Naseer Ahmad Khan	SP	Nawab Kazim Ali Khan	INC
70	ROBERTSGANJ	Chhotelal	BJP	Pakaudi Lal Kol	SP
71	SAHARANPUR	Raghav Lakhanpal	BJP	Jagdish Singh Rana	BSP
72	SALEMPUR	Ravi Shanker Singh	BSP	Dr.Bhola Pandey	INC
73	SAMBHAL	Satyapal Singh	BJP	Aqeel-Ur-Rehman Khan	BSP
74	SANT KABIR NAGAR	Sharad Tripathi	BJP	Rajaram Nishad	PECP
75	SHAHJAHANPUR	Mithilesh Kumar	SP	Umed Singh Kashyap	BSP
76	SHRAWASTI	Atiq Ahmad	SP	Vinay Kumar Pandey	INC
77	SITAPUR	Kaiser Jahan	BSP	Rajesh Verma	BJP
78	SULTANPUR	Varun Gandhi	BJP	Ameeta Singh	INC
79	UNNAO	Brajesh Pathak	BSP	Annu Tandon	INC
80	VARANASI	Narendra Modi	BJP	Arvind Kejriwal	AAP

The seats prediction is as follows

Party	Seats
BJP	42
BSP	18
INC	5
RLD	2
SP	13

Jharkhand

Jharkhand will see some of the most keenly contested elections, as the parties in the fray are numerous and strong in their own domains. There's Jharkhand Mukti Morcha(JMM), which is the state ruling party, which has allied with Congress and RJD. JMM's strength is tribal support due to their founder Shibu Soren's fight against unfair practices of money lenders against tribals and backward castes. There's JVM(P) - Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), formed by former Jharkhand chief minister Babulal Marandi. And there's AJSU(All Jharkhand Students Union), under Sudesh Mahto who's a strong influence among youth. The current MPs distribution is as follows - BJP : 7, JMM : 2, JVM : 2, Congress: 1 and Independents : 2

BJP is looking to win more than 10 seats, and maybe even all 14. But that is going to be highly unlikely in this Maoist-hit state. There are some really close contests in the offing in this state.

• Dumka - One of the most important seats for the JMM-Congress alliance as JMM President Shibu Soren is aiming for his 4th consecutive win. But making his task tough is JVM's Babu Lal Marandi, the state’s first chief minister who has left his Koderma seat to contest against Shibu Soren in an attempt to bring about the downfall of JMM. But Soren still has a great voter base in tribals and backward castes. BJP's Sunil Soren lost by a small margin in 2009, so if the fight this time is mainly between JMM and JVM, he could also look to scrape through riding on the Modi wave
• Hazaribagh - Yashwant Sinha's son Jayant Sinha is a IIT Delhi and Harvard alumnus and an ex-employee of Mckinsey is returning to India after nearly 25 years to fight in the constituency his father won in 2009 by a margin of about 40000 votes. Perhaps the most well-educated candidate in BJP this year, it should be interesting to see if he has the capability to make Indian villagers vote for him. He will face a contest mainly from Congress's sitting MLA Saurabh Narain Singh and Loknath Mahto who was an ex-BJP MLA but quit recently to contest on an All Jharkhand Students' Union ticket
• Ranchi - Congress's Subodh Sahay is two-time MP here and won by a very close margin last elections. The Ranchi contestants this time are much stronger and it is expected to be a close call. BJP's four-time consecutive MP Ram Tahal Choudhary, JVM's Amitabh Choudhary(influential president of the Jharkhand State Cricket Association and former ADG of Police), AJSU Party chief Sudesh Mahto who is a popular youth leader, Bandhu Tirkey of Trinamool Congress
• Jamshedpur - In this industrial area of the Tatas, JVM's Ajay Kumar(an IPS officer who also is a doctor, holds an MBA degree, and currently CEO of Max Neeman, a co. of Max group) is the sitting MP having won the bypolls in 2011 by a huge margin of 1.56 lakh votes, but BJP's candidate Bidyut Mahato has gained a lot of support in rural areas. If JMM and JVM split muslim votes, urban votes should go mostly in BJP's favor
• Khunti - A highly crime-ridden place, Khunti is on the Union home ministry's list of worst Maoist-hit districts in the country. Candidates here have not even been able to campaign in rural areas due to rebel threats. BJP's Karia Munda, a 7-time MP won in 2009 by a huge margin, but this time a sitting MLA Anosh Ekka of Jharkhand Party allegedly in the good books of PLFI rebels is expected to give him a very tough fight
• Rajmahal - The battle of the deserters. Hemlal Murmu was one of JMM founder members and a Shibu Soren loyalist for ages before switching to BJP a month ago when he felt insulted by chief minister Hemant Soren’s decision to induct Youth Congress leader Vijay as JMM’s MP nominee from Rajmahal. Whether Murmu will be able gain votes of his traditional JMM vote bank will be crucial to this constituency's outcome
• Singhbhum -Madhu Koda is the sitting MP, but this time he is campaigning for his wife Geetha, who is contesting on a Jai Bharat Samantha Party ticket. Madhu has great respect in the rural areas and should be able to campaign successfully, but it will be a close contest against Congress's Chitrasen Sinku, JVMP's Dashrath Gagrai and BJP candidate Laxman Giluwa
• Dhanbad - BJP's P.N.Singh has a strong presence in this constituency, having been an MLA for 3 terms before becoming an MP in 2009. His main opponent Chandrasekhar Dubey is contesting from Trinamool Congress after being denied a ticket by the JMM-Congress alliance. Other important contestants are JVM’s Bokaro MLA Samresh Singh and Congress's Ajay Dubey
• Godda - This constituency has wavered between INC and BJP in the last two years. Congress's Ansari lost to sitting MP Nishikant Dubey by a margin of 6000 votes last time. But this year, with competition from JVM's Pradip Yadav, BJP's competition is expected to split their votes among themselves
• Lohardaga - Chamra Linda, currently a sitting MLA in Hemant Soren's government contested in 2009 as an independent and lost closely to sitting MP Sudarshan Bhagat. This year, contesting for Trinamool Congress, he is expected to pose a tough challenge to him

The constituency-wise predictions are as below

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	CHATRA	Sunil Kumar Singh	BJP	Nilam Devi	JVM(P)
2	DHANBAD	Pashupati Nath Singh	BJP	Chandra Shekhar Dubey	AITC
3	DUMKA	Babu Lal Marandi	JVM(P)	Shibu Soren	JMM
4	GIRIDIH	Ravindra Pandey	BJP	Jagarnath Mahto	JMM
5	GODDA	Nishikant Dubey	BJP	Furkan Ansari	INC
6	HAZARIBAGH	Jayant Sinha	BJP	Loknath Mahto	AJSUP
7	JAMSHEDPUR	Bidyut Baran Mahato	BJP	Ajay Kumar	JVM
8	KHUNTI	Karia Munda	BJP	Anosh Ekka	JKP
9	KODARMA	Pranav Kumar Verma	JVM(P)	Ravindra Kumar Ray	BJP
10	LOHARDAGA	Chamra Linda	AITC	Sudarshan Bhagat	BJP
11	PALAMAU	Vishnu Dayal Ram	BJP	Kameshwar Baitha	AITC
12	RAJMAHAL	Hemlal Murmu	BJP	Vijay Kumar Hansdak	JMM
13	RANCHI	Ram Tahal Choudhary	BJP	Amitabh Choudhary	JVM
14	SINGHBHUM	Geeta Koda	JBSP	Laxman Giluwa	BJP

The seats tally prediction is as follows

Party	Seats
AITC	1
BJP	10
JBSP	1
JVM(P)	2

The seats I have predicted as non-BJP wins could go any which way, and Shibu Soren or Sunil Soren could very well pip Marandi in Dumka.

Gujarat

The Gujarat model of development - is it real or is it a big fat lie? The results in the state will be a strong indicator of this key talking point of this year's elections. Gujarat currently has 17 MPs from BJP and 9 from Congress. BJP is surely going to increase this tally, and even Congress has expressed hopes of winning at max 6 seats. Most opinion polls predict a maximum of 4 for Congress. After my analysis, I could give congress anywhere between 2-5 seats, as they do have some strong local leaders in some constituencies and the support of minorities and tribals in some. But the biggest factor that would prove crucial, I feel is the enthusiasm of the voters to see their own CM succeed in his quest to lead the nation. This could be the only plausible explanation for the significantly increased voter turnout(from 48% to 62%) witnessed in Gujarat. Modi and Advani are not going to have any trouble winning from Vadodara and Gandhinagar respectively. But there sure are some interesting constituencies to look out for.

• Ahmedabad East - Paresh Rawal was controversially given the ticket ahead of 7-time sitting MP Harin Pathak. Whether this move will backfire remains to be seen. BJP is expected to win due to the strength of its traditional vote bank here, but Congress's Himmat Singh Patel is a pukka local and has served as corporator for 4 terms and mayor of Ahmedabad as well. So it will be not be as easy for BJP as in the previous elections when it used to win by a margin of more than 60000 votes
• Sabarkantha - Sabarkantha has been a Congress stronghold owing to tribals, Rajputs, Thakors and OBCs. BJP won the seat in 2009, but Congress managed to secure 6 out of 7 seats during 2012 Assembly elections. Though one MLA has defected to BJP, reducing their count to 5, their candidate Shanker Vaghela is seen as a much more formidable opponent compared to BJP's Dipsinh Rathod
• Bardoli - This is an ST constituency which will be a big challenge for BJP against Congress's sittign MP Tushar Chaudhary, but high voter turnout could be an indication that the anti-incumbency factor would have worked in BJP's favor. Also BJP's candidate Parbhu Vasava was an ex-Congressman who switched to BJP before the elections. JD(U)'s Jagatsinh Vasava also has gained some ground, making it a 3-cornered fight
• Jamnagar - It's a battle of niece vs uncle in this constituency. Sitting Congress MP Vikram Maadam faces a fight against his niece Poonam Maadam, who is an MLA contesting LS polls for the first time. Congress has maintained a vote share of 47% in both the previous elections, but it is bound to go down this year.
• Dahod - This could be the only seat or one of the few seats that could go in Congress's favor. In 2009 Prabha Taviyad had won by a huge margin of 58000 votes but this year will face a tough contest from BJP MLA Jasvant Bhabhor
• Kheda - Union Minister for mines Dinsha Patel, aged 76, is one of Congress's seniormost and strongest candidates in Gujarat and has a clean image which he expects to carry him through in this constituency considered a Congress bastion, but Devusinh Chauhan, a BJP MLA should be able to breach it this time in all likelihood
• Banaskantha - Haribhai Chaudhary has won the bypolls here in 2013 following the death of the Congress MP Mukesh Gadhvi. He won it by more than 50000 seats(the highest margin since 1996) and should be able to retain the seat easily, contesting against Congress's Joitabhai Patel, a sitting MLA from Dhanera
• Chhota Udaipur - BJP's Ramsinh Rathwa and Congress's Naranbhai Rathwa are facing each other for the 5th time this year in this constituency which keeps swinging between Congress and BJP. Currently with BJP, there is no evident reason for Congress to win this seat apart from tribals' support. There has been a voter turnout of 71%, which could be a positive sign for Congress
• Panchmahal - This is the constituency whose centre is Godhra, and during 2009 elections, BJP won by a slender margin of 2000 votes. There has been a greater voter turnout this time(58.84% compared to 42% last time). It could be due to anti-incumbency against sitting BJP MP, or it could be a sign of youth rallying behind Modi. But it will sure be a close fight
• Rajkot - On Rajkot Lok Sabha seat, three sub-castes of Patels ‘Kadva’ (2 lakh) and ‘Leuva’ (2.75 lakh) and ‘Koli’ (2.35 lakh) community have remained decisivein the polls. The seat had been won by Leuva Patel candidates (from both parties) since 1977 to 2004, but in 2009, a Koli community leader from Congress won it for the first time. BJP has gambled on a Kadva leader in Mohan Kundaria against sitting MP Kuvarji Bavailia. It will be a close contest, but it seems quite likely that BJP will be able to snatch the seat back from Congress
• Patan - Thakors are the major community here, and since both BJP's and Congress candidates belong to that community, it is expected to be a close fight. Congress's Rathod is a stronger force locally and had contested from BJP last elections and lost to Congress. 
• Anand - Congress has won this seat in both 2004 and 2009, hence this is perceived as a constituency where BJP is weak. So BJP has fielded sitting MLA Dilip Patel, who should be able to defeat Congress's Bharatbhai Solanki riding on the Modi wave
• Junagadh - In this native town of the Ambanis, the sitting MP is from BJP but Punja Vansh of Congress has a much stronger local presence compared to Rajesh Chudasama of BJP, who is considered a new face. It will be a close fight
• Amreli - Though there is an anti-incumbency factor against the BJP MP from this constituency due to lack of development of roads in villages, it will be difficult for Congress's Thummar to overcome the Congress's anti-incumbency factor, but it will be a close contest

My constituency-wise predictions are as follows -

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	AHMEDABAD EAST	Paresh Rawal	BJP	Himmat Singh Patel	INC
2	AHMEDABAD WEST	Dr. Kirit P Solanki	BJP	Ishwarbhai Dhanabhai Makwana	INC
3	AMRELI	Naranbhai Kachhadiya	BJP	Virjibhai Thummar	INC
4	ANAND	Dilip Patel	BJP	Bharatbhai Solanki	INC
5	BANASKANTHA	Haribhai Parthibhai Chaudhary	BJP	Joitabhai Kasnabhai Patel	INC
6	BARDOLI	Parbhubhai Nagarbhai Vasava	BJP	Tusharbhai Amarsinhbhai Chaudhari	INC
7	BHARUCH	Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava	BJP	Jayeshbhai Ambalalbhai Patel	INC
8	BHAVNAGAR	Bharatiben Dhirubhai Shiyal	BJP	Pravinbhai Jinabhai Rathod	INC
9	CHHOTA UDAIPUR	Ramsinh Rathwa	BJP	Naranbhai Jemalabhai Rathva	INC
10	DAHOD	Prabhaben Kishorsinh Taviyad	INC	Jasvantsinh Sumanbhai Bhabhor	BJP
11	GANDHINAGAR	L.K. Advani	BJP	Kiritbhai Ishvarbhai Patel	INC
12	JAMNAGAR	Poonamben Hematbhai Maadam	BJP	Ahir Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Maadam	INC
13	JUNAGADH	Rajeshbhai Naranbhai Chudasama	BJP	Punjabhai Bhimabhai Vansh	INC
14	KHEDA	Devusinh Chauhan	BJP	Dinsha Patel	INC
15	KUTCH	Vinod Lakhamashi Chavda	BJP	Dinesh Parmar	INC
16	MAHESANA	Jayshreeben Kanubhai Patel	BJP	Jivabhai Ambalal Patel	INC
17	NAVSARI	C. R. Patil	BJP	Maksud Mirza	INC
18	PANCHMAHAL	Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh Chauhan	BJP	Ramsinh Parmar	INC
19	PATAN	Liladharbhai Khodaji Vaghela	BJP	Bhavsinhbhai Dahyabhai Rathod	INC
20	PORBANDAR	Vithalbhai Hansrajbhai Radadiya	BJP	Kandhalbhai Sarmanbhai Jadeja	NCP
21	RAJKOT	Mohanbhai Kalyanjibhai Kundariya	BJP	Kunvarjibhai Mohanbhai Bavaliya	INC
22	SABARKANTHA	Shankersinh Vaghela Bapu	INC	Dipsinh Shankarsinh Rathod	BJP
23	SURAT	Darshana Vikram Jardosh	BJP	Naishadhbhai Bhupatbhai Desai	INC
24	SURENDRANAGAR	Devjibhai Fatepura	BJP	Somanbhai Patel	INC
25	VADODARA	Narendra Modi	BJP	Madhusudan Devram Mistri	INC
26	VALSAD	K.C.Patel	BJP	Kishanbhai Vestabhai Patel	INC

The seats tally prediction is as follows -

Party	Seats
BJP	24
INC	2