Gujarat

The Gujarat model of development - is it real or is it a big fat lie? The results in the state will be a strong indicator of this key talking point of this year's elections. Gujarat currently has 17 MPs from BJP and 9 from Congress. BJP is surely going to increase this tally, and even Congress has expressed hopes of winning at max 6 seats. Most opinion polls predict a maximum of 4 for Congress. After my analysis, I could give congress anywhere between 2-5 seats, as they do have some strong local leaders in some constituencies and the support of minorities and tribals in some. But the biggest factor that would prove crucial, I feel is the enthusiasm of the voters to see their own CM succeed in his quest to lead the nation. This could be the only plausible explanation for the significantly increased voter turnout(from 48% to 62%) witnessed in Gujarat. Modi and Advani are not going to have any trouble winning from Vadodara and Gandhinagar respectively. But there sure are some interesting constituencies to look out for.

• Ahmedabad East - Paresh Rawal was controversially given the ticket ahead of 7-time sitting MP Harin Pathak. Whether this move will backfire remains to be seen. BJP is expected to win due to the strength of its traditional vote bank here, but Congress's Himmat Singh Patel is a pukka local and has served as corporator for 4 terms and mayor of Ahmedabad as well. So it will be not be as easy for BJP as in the previous elections when it used to win by a margin of more than 60000 votes
• Sabarkantha - Sabarkantha has been a Congress stronghold owing to tribals, Rajputs, Thakors and OBCs. BJP won the seat in 2009, but Congress managed to secure 6 out of 7 seats during 2012 Assembly elections. Though one MLA has defected to BJP, reducing their count to 5, their candidate Shanker Vaghela is seen as a much more formidable opponent compared to BJP's Dipsinh Rathod
• Bardoli - This is an ST constituency which will be a big challenge for BJP against Congress's sittign MP Tushar Chaudhary, but high voter turnout could be an indication that the anti-incumbency factor would have worked in BJP's favor. Also BJP's candidate Parbhu Vasava was an ex-Congressman who switched to BJP before the elections. JD(U)'s Jagatsinh Vasava also has gained some ground, making it a 3-cornered fight
• Jamnagar - It's a battle of niece vs uncle in this constituency. Sitting Congress MP Vikram Maadam faces a fight against his niece Poonam Maadam, who is an MLA contesting LS polls for the first time. Congress has maintained a vote share of 47% in both the previous elections, but it is bound to go down this year.
• Dahod - This could be the only seat or one of the few seats that could go in Congress's favor. In 2009 Prabha Taviyad had won by a huge margin of 58000 votes but this year will face a tough contest from BJP MLA Jasvant Bhabhor
• Kheda - Union Minister for mines Dinsha Patel, aged 76, is one of Congress's seniormost and strongest candidates in Gujarat and has a clean image which he expects to carry him through in this constituency considered a Congress bastion, but Devusinh Chauhan, a BJP MLA should be able to breach it this time in all likelihood
• Banaskantha - Haribhai Chaudhary has won the bypolls here in 2013 following the death of the Congress MP Mukesh Gadhvi. He won it by more than 50000 seats(the highest margin since 1996) and should be able to retain the seat easily, contesting against Congress's Joitabhai Patel, a sitting MLA from Dhanera
• Chhota Udaipur - BJP's Ramsinh Rathwa and Congress's Naranbhai Rathwa are facing each other for the 5th time this year in this constituency which keeps swinging between Congress and BJP. Currently with BJP, there is no evident reason for Congress to win this seat apart from tribals' support. There has been a voter turnout of 71%, which could be a positive sign for Congress
• Panchmahal - This is the constituency whose centre is Godhra, and during 2009 elections, BJP won by a slender margin of 2000 votes. There has been a greater voter turnout this time(58.84% compared to 42% last time). It could be due to anti-incumbency against sitting BJP MP, or it could be a sign of youth rallying behind Modi. But it will sure be a close fight
• Rajkot - On Rajkot Lok Sabha seat, three sub-castes of Patels ‘Kadva’ (2 lakh) and ‘Leuva’ (2.75 lakh) and ‘Koli’ (2.35 lakh) community have remained decisivein the polls. The seat had been won by Leuva Patel candidates (from both parties) since 1977 to 2004, but in 2009, a Koli community leader from Congress won it for the first time. BJP has gambled on a Kadva leader in Mohan Kundaria against sitting MP Kuvarji Bavailia. It will be a close contest, but it seems quite likely that BJP will be able to snatch the seat back from Congress
• Patan - Thakors are the major community here, and since both BJP's and Congress candidates belong to that community, it is expected to be a close fight. Congress's Rathod is a stronger force locally and had contested from BJP last elections and lost to Congress. 
• Anand - Congress has won this seat in both 2004 and 2009, hence this is perceived as a constituency where BJP is weak. So BJP has fielded sitting MLA Dilip Patel, who should be able to defeat Congress's Bharatbhai Solanki riding on the Modi wave
• Junagadh - In this native town of the Ambanis, the sitting MP is from BJP but Punja Vansh of Congress has a much stronger local presence compared to Rajesh Chudasama of BJP, who is considered a new face. It will be a close fight
• Amreli - Though there is an anti-incumbency factor against the BJP MP from this constituency due to lack of development of roads in villages, it will be difficult for Congress's Thummar to overcome the Congress's anti-incumbency factor, but it will be a close contest

My constituency-wise predictions are as follows -

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	AHMEDABAD EAST	Paresh Rawal	BJP	Himmat Singh Patel	INC
2	AHMEDABAD WEST	Dr. Kirit P Solanki	BJP	Ishwarbhai Dhanabhai Makwana	INC
3	AMRELI	Naranbhai Kachhadiya	BJP	Virjibhai Thummar	INC
4	ANAND	Dilip Patel	BJP	Bharatbhai Solanki	INC
5	BANASKANTHA	Haribhai Parthibhai Chaudhary	BJP	Joitabhai Kasnabhai Patel	INC
6	BARDOLI	Parbhubhai Nagarbhai Vasava	BJP	Tusharbhai Amarsinhbhai Chaudhari	INC
7	BHARUCH	Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava	BJP	Jayeshbhai Ambalalbhai Patel	INC
8	BHAVNAGAR	Bharatiben Dhirubhai Shiyal	BJP	Pravinbhai Jinabhai Rathod	INC
9	CHHOTA UDAIPUR	Ramsinh Rathwa	BJP	Naranbhai Jemalabhai Rathva	INC
10	DAHOD	Prabhaben Kishorsinh Taviyad	INC	Jasvantsinh Sumanbhai Bhabhor	BJP
11	GANDHINAGAR	L.K. Advani	BJP	Kiritbhai Ishvarbhai Patel	INC
12	JAMNAGAR	Poonamben Hematbhai Maadam	BJP	Ahir Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Maadam	INC
13	JUNAGADH	Rajeshbhai Naranbhai Chudasama	BJP	Punjabhai Bhimabhai Vansh	INC
14	KHEDA	Devusinh Chauhan	BJP	Dinsha Patel	INC
15	KUTCH	Vinod Lakhamashi Chavda	BJP	Dinesh Parmar	INC
16	MAHESANA	Jayshreeben Kanubhai Patel	BJP	Jivabhai Ambalal Patel	INC
17	NAVSARI	C. R. Patil	BJP	Maksud Mirza	INC
18	PANCHMAHAL	Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh Chauhan	BJP	Ramsinh Parmar	INC
19	PATAN	Liladharbhai Khodaji Vaghela	BJP	Bhavsinhbhai Dahyabhai Rathod	INC
20	PORBANDAR	Vithalbhai Hansrajbhai Radadiya	BJP	Kandhalbhai Sarmanbhai Jadeja	NCP
21	RAJKOT	Mohanbhai Kalyanjibhai Kundariya	BJP	Kunvarjibhai Mohanbhai Bavaliya	INC
22	SABARKANTHA	Shankersinh Vaghela Bapu	INC	Dipsinh Shankarsinh Rathod	BJP
23	SURAT	Darshana Vikram Jardosh	BJP	Naishadhbhai Bhupatbhai Desai	INC
24	SURENDRANAGAR	Devjibhai Fatepura	BJP	Somanbhai Patel	INC
25	VADODARA	Narendra Modi	BJP	Madhusudan Devram Mistri	INC
26	VALSAD	K.C.Patel	BJP	Kishanbhai Vestabhai Patel	INC

The seats tally prediction is as follows -

Party	Seats
BJP	24
INC	2