At the end of this 20-day exercise, I have successfully analysed all 543 constituencies, though not in as much detail as I would have liked. The basis for the analysis, as I mentioned in my first post has been media reports, past performance of parties and what you could call gut feeling based on the overall trend. The primary sources for this were myneta.info, elections.in, various media reports available through google news search.There has been no personal bias or preference attached to the predictions. If it were, the results would altogether be different, and probably 100% wrong. What I expected out of this exercise is to gain an understanding of the political scenario in the whole country and to an extent the key factors in each state. I must say it has been an eye-opener and even though I know my opinions on politics matter to nobody, it sure was a good educative time pass.
Ok, let me cut the crap and get to the chase. Here's the summary table at the end of all the analysis.
The NDA and UPA candidate classifications were made based on what is in the public domain(Read Wikipedia) and doesn't take into account potential NDA/UPA candidates.
If we look at the leading parties nationally based on my predictions, this is what you're looking at
Ok, let me cut the crap and get to the chase. Here's the summary table at the end of all the analysis.
| State | NDA | Others | UPA | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS | 1 | 1 | ||
| ARUNACHAL PRADESH | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| ASSAM | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| BIHAR | 21 | 5 | 14 | 40 |
| CHANDIGARH | 1 | 1 | ||
| CHHATTISGARH | 10 | 1 | 11 | |
| DADRA AND NAGAR HAVELI | 1 | 1 | ||
| DAMAN AND DIU | 1 | 1 | ||
| DELHI | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
| GOA | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| GUJARAT | 24 | 2 | 26 | |
| HARYANA | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| HIMACHAL PRADESH | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| JAMMU AND KASHMIR | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| JHARKHAND | 10 | 4 | 14 | |
| KARNATAKA | 14 | 3 | 11 | 28 |
| KERALA | 1 | 10 | 9 | 20 |
| LAKSHADWEEP | 1 | 1 | ||
| MADHYA PRADESH | 26 | 3 | 29 | |
| MAHARASHTRA | 33 | 4 | 11 | 48 |
| MANIPUR | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| MEGHALAYA | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| MIZORAM | 1 | 1 | ||
| NAGALAND | 1 | 1 | ||
| ORISSA | 3 | 15 | 3 | 21 |
| PUDUCHERRY | 1 | 1 | ||
| PUNJAB | 11 | 2 | 13 | |
| RAJASTHAN | 23 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| SEEMANDHRA | 10 | 15 | 25 | |
| SIKKIM | 1 | 1 | ||
| TAMIL NADU | 12 | 27 | 39 | |
| TELANGANA | 4 | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| TRIPURA | 2 | 2 | ||
| UTTAR PRADESH | 44 | 31 | 5 | 80 |
| UTTARAKHAND | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| WEST BENGAL | 5 | 32 | 5 | 42 |
| Grand Total | 288 | 169 | 86 | 543 |
The NDA and UPA candidate classifications were made based on what is in the public domain(Read Wikipedia) and doesn't take into account potential NDA/UPA candidates.
If we look at the leading parties nationally based on my predictions, this is what you're looking at
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| BJP | 234 |
| INC | 66 |
| AITC | 23 |
| ADMK | 20 |
| BSP | 18 |
| BJD | 15 |
| YSRCP | 15 |
| Shiv Sena | 13 |
| SP | 13 |
| TDP | 13 |
| RJD | 10 |
| CPI(M) | 9 |
| SAD | 8 |
| TRS | 7 |
| CPM | 7 |
| DMK | 6 |
| Independent | 6 |
| NCP | 5 |
| JD(U) | 5 |
| PMK | 5 |
| RSP | 3 |
| JD(S) | 3 |
| PWPI | 2 |
| IUML | 2 |
| LJP | 2 |
| RLD | 2 |
| DMDK | 2 |
| AAP | 2 |
| AGP | 2 |
| JVM(P) | 2 |
| JKPDP | 2 |
| KMDK | 1 |
| SDF | 1 |
| VCK | 1 |
| INLD | 1 |
| KEC(M) | 1 |
| NPF | 1 |
| UDF | 1 |
| NPP | 1 |
| MNS | 1 |
| AIUDF | 1 |
| CPI | 1 |
| Puthiya Tamilagam | 1 |
| SWP | 1 |
| JBSP | 1 |
| AIMIM | 1 |
| All India N.R. Congress | 1 |
| UDP | 1 |
| BVA | 1 |
| MDMK | 1 |
| JKN | 1 |
| HJC | 1 |
So here's my prediction on the predictions. NDA's share could be exaggerated in some states(WB, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan to name a few) , and underestimated in some states(Seemandhra, Karnataka, UP to name a few). So overall, BJP's count of 234 and NDA's count of 288 will be +/- 10 is what I feel.
I have revised the Tamil Nadu predictions after more feedback and inputs since this was the first state I analysed. Yet I have given ADMK only 20 which is still a low count compared to all the exit polls. But if my number ends up closer tomorrow, nothing like it.
So there you go. Fingers crossed for counting day! Click here for a list of mouth-watering contests to track tomorrow and here for the consolidated list of constituency-wise predictions.
So there you go. Fingers crossed for counting day! Click here for a list of mouth-watering contests to track tomorrow and here for the consolidated list of constituency-wise predictions.
No comments:
Post a Comment