It is Modi vs Nitish vs Laloo in this constituency. Having been upset in 2009, Lalu Prasad Yadav has campaigned aggressively to ensure a better performance for RJD, but having allied with the Congress, he will face a tough task battling the anti-incumbency factor to perform well. JD(U) on the other hand is facing anti-incumbency in the state and is expected to lose a great portion of their vote share. It is the BJP-LJP alliance which stands to gain in this state with anywhere between 18-24 votes or even more.
Some interesting constituencies -
The seats tally prediction is as follows
Some interesting constituencies -
- Pataliputra - Lalu has launched his daughter into politics from this constituency and has left no stone unturned to ensure she wins, but she faces a stiff challenge from sitting JD(U) MP Ranjan Prasad Yadav, the giant-killer who beat Lalu in 2009, and RJD turncoat Ramkripal Yadav, who switched from RJD to BJP recently
- Madhepura - In this constituency from which Lalu won in 1998 and 2004, sitting MP Sharad Yadav will have a tough contest against Pappu Yadav of RJD. Will be a very close fight.
- Banka - Putul Kumari won as an independent in the bypolls in 2010, and is now contesting as the BJP candidate and should win comfortably. She is a real revolver rani, having declared several weapons in her affidavit. She owns a.315 bore rifle worth Rs.70,000, a 12 bore gun worth Rs.80,000, a .32 Webley Scott revolver worth Rs.2.50 lakh, a .22 rifle worth Rs.70,000 and a 28 bore gun worth Rs.55, 000.
- Gaya - The battle of the Manjhis, all three major parties have fielded Manjhis. Manjhis(musahars), are known for their rat-catching and ploughing skills, and have become the dominant caste in Bihar after Lalu Prasad Yadav projected Bhagwati Devi as the most prominent musahar face. Manjhis have won here for all three previous terms, though they shift allegiances. Ramji Manjhi who won in 1999 on a BJP ticket is now the RJD candidate and is expected to pose a serious threat to sitting MP Hari Manjhi of BJP.
- Jhanjharpur - It's the battle of the party-hoppers here. Last elections, Mangani Lal Mandal won this seat for JD(U) against Devendra Prasad Yadav of RJD. This time both of them have switched parties and contesting again. Should be interesting to see if the party prevails or the candidate. An interesting opponent is AAP's Tiliya Devi, who is a nobel peace prize nominee for her work in creating awareness about Dalit rights
- Arrah - Will be a close contest here between sitting MP Meena Singh of JD(U) and BJP's ex-Union home secy R.K.Singh. Despite not being a local, he is trying to establish a connect with the population by speaking at rallies in Bhojpuri. RJD's Bhagwan Singh Kushwaha will also be a tough opponent. The prevailing sentiment is that being a Rajput, he should be able to corner the community's votes and riding on the Modi factor, he could sail through by a small margin
- Sasaram - "Bhaith Jaaiye" - Hope Meira Kumar wasn't using her trademark line at her rallies too. Lalu has campaigned well for her and should ensure her victory here
- Darbhanga - Ex-cricketer Kirti Azad, who has won this seat twice including 2009 is facing strong RJD leader Ali Ashraf Fatmi who is also a 4-time MP from here. Also in the fray is JD(U)'s Sanjay Kumar Singh. Will be a close contest
- Patna Sahib - All you need to know about this constituency is "Khamosh!!!!" as Shatrughan Sinha is the incumbent MP from BJP and expected to win easily
- Begusarai - It will be a very close contest here between CPI, BJP and RJD as JD(U) holds the parliamentary seat and is backing CPI because they won the 2010 assembly elections. Bhola Singh of BJP won last time from Nawada and is a strong leader locally, having been an assembly member 9 times since 1967
- Araria - Apparently in this Muslim dominated constituency there is a “wave” in favour of RJD's Taslimuddin which seems to be sweeping the BJP incumbent, Pradip Singh, rather than the Modi wave rescuing him.
- Hajipur - The future of Ramvilas Paswan is at stake in this constituency where JD(U) has the sitting MP Ram Sunder Das. It has to be seen if Paswan can win on the backing of the Modi wave
- Katihar - 3-time sitting MP Nikhil Kumar Chaudhary will slug it out against Tariq Anwar of NCP who was the MP four times in the 80s and 90s before BJP won this seat in 1999. Having Lallu Prasad's support, Tariq is expected to win this seat
- Gopalganj - RJD-backed Jyoti Bharti faces a three-cornered contest here between Janak Ram of BJP and Anil Kumar of JD(U). Purnmasi Ram of Congress who won in 2009 has been fielded this time from Valmiki Nagar in an attempt to wrest that seat from JD(U)
- Jahanabad - This is a prestige seat for Jagdish Sharma, a fodder scam convict who couldn't contest. Anil Sharma is the JD(U) candidate who will face a tough fight from RJD strongman Surendra Prasad Yadav and RLSP's Dr. Arun Kumar who is a fierce rival of Jagdish Sharma
The constituency-wise predictions are as follows -
| No | Constituency | Predicted Winner | Party | Other Top 2 Candidate | Party |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARARIA | Mohammed Tasleemuddin | RJD | Pradeep Kumar Singh | BJP |
| 2 | ARRAH | Raj Kumar Singh | BJP | Meena Singh | JD(U) |
| 3 | AURANGABAD | Sushil Singh | BJP | Bagi Kumar Verma | JD(U) |
| 4 | BANKA | Putul Kumari | BJP | Jai Prakash Narayan Yadav | RJD |
| 5 | BEGUSARAI | Bhola Singh | BJP | Rajendra Prasad Singh | CPI |
| 6 | BHAGALPUR | Syed Shahnawaz Hussain | BJP | Shailesh Kumar Urph Bulo Mandal | RJD |
| 7 | BUXAR | Ashwani Kumar Choubey | BJP | Jagadanand Singh | RJD |
| 8 | DARBHANGA | Kirti Azad | BJP | Md. Ali Ashraf Fatmi | RJD |
| 9 | GAYA | Ramji Manjhi | RJD | Hari Manjhi | BJP |
| 10 | GOPALGANJ | Dr. Jyoti Bharti | INC | Anil Kumar | JD(U) |
| 11 | HAJIPUR | Ramvilas Paswan | LJP | Ram Sunder Das | JD(U) |
| 12 | JAHANABAD | Surendera Prasad Yadav | RJD | Anil Kumar Sharma | JD(U) |
| 13 | JAMUI | Uday Narain Choudhary | JD(U) | Sudhansu Shekhar Bhaskar | RJD |
| 14 | JHANJHARPUR | Devendra Prasad Yadav | JD(U) | Mangani Lal Mandal | RJD |
| 15 | KARAKAT | Kanti Singh | RJD | Mahabali Singh | JD(U) |
| 16 | KATIHAR | Tariq Anwar | NCP | Nikhil Kumar Chaudhary | BJP |
| 17 | KHAGARIA | Dinesh Chandra Yadav | JD(U) | Krishna Kumari Yadav | RJD |
| 18 | KISHANGANJ | Mohmd Asrarul Haque | INC | Akhtarul Imam | JD(U) |
| 19 | MADHEPURA | Sharad Yadav | JD(U) | Rajesh Ranjan (Pappu Yadav) | RJD |
| 20 | MADHUBANI | Hukm Deo Narayan Yadav | BJP | Abdul Bari Siddiqui | RJD |
| 21 | MAHARAJGANJ | Prabhu Nath Singh | RJD | Janardan Singh Sigriwal | BJP |
| 22 | MUNGER | Pragati Mehta | RJD | Rajiv Ranjan Singh Alias Lalan Singh | JD(U) |
| 23 | MUZAFFARPUR | Ajay Nishad | BJP | Vijendra Chaudhary | JD(U) |
| 24 | NALANDA | Kaushlendra Kumar | JD(U) | Satyanand Sharma | LJP |
| 25 | NAWADA | Giriraj Singh | BJP | Raj Ballabh Yadav | RJD |
| 26 | PASCHIM CHAMPARAN | Dr. Sanjay Jaiswal | BJP | Prakash Jha | JD(U) |
| 27 | PATALIPUTRA | Misha Bharti | RJD | Ranjan Prasad Yadav | JD(U) |
| 28 | PATNA SAHIB | Shatrughan Sinha | BJP | Kunal Singh | INC |
| 29 | PURNIA | Uday Yadav | BJP | Santosh Kumar Kushwaha | JD(U) |
| 30 | PURVI CHAMPARAN | Radha Mohan Singh | BJP | Binod Kumar Srivastava | RJD |
| 31 | SAMASTIPUR | Ram Chandra Paswan | LJP | Maheshwar Hazari | JD(U) |
| 32 | SARAN | Rabri Devi | RJD | Rajiv Pratap Rudy | BJP |
| 33 | SASARAM | Meira Kumar | INC | Chhedi Paswan | BJP |
| 34 | SHEOHAR | Rama Devi | BJP | Md Anwarul Haque | RJD |
| 35 | SITAMARHI | Sita Ram Yadav | RJD | Ram Kumar Sharma | RLSP |
| 36 | SIWAN | Om Prakash Yadav | BJP | Hina Sahab | RJD |
| 37 | SUPAUL | Kameshwar Chaupal | BJP | Dileshwar Kamait | JD(U) |
| 38 | UJIARPUR | Nityanand Rai | BJP | Alok Kumar Mehta | RJD |
| 39 | VAISHALI | Raghuvansh Prasad Singh | RJD | Rama Singh | LJP |
| 40 | VALMIKI NAGAR | Satish Dubey | BJP | Baidhnath Prasad Mahto | JD(U) |
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| BJP | 19 |
| INC | 3 |
| JD(U) | 5 |
| LJP | 2 |
| NCP | 1 |
| RJD | 10 |
This would give the NDA alliance 21 and the Congress-RJD-NCP alliance 14, while the remaining 5 would go to JD(U)
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