Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Delhi and Goa

Delhi with 7 seats and Goa with 2 may not alter the final results significantly but witness some of the most interesting contests this year. AAP surprised everyone in the Delhi assembly elections by winning 28 seats, but afterwards seems to have lost much of its appeal in the state thanks to Kejriwal's resignation. Delhi could be a complete sweep for BJP if not for one or two constituencies where AAP still has a strong chance. I predict a 6-1 result in favor of BJP. In Goa, it could be one each for BJP and Congress.

Some key contests-

  • Chandni Chowk - Most interesting battle in Delhi between Congress's Kapil Sibal, AAP's Ashutosh and BJP's Harsh Vardhan. Chandni Chowk consists of 20% Muslims and 15% Vaish population, one can expect the Muslim votes to get split between Congress and AAP, giving a good chance for BJP's Harsh Vardhan
  • North West Delhi - This is a SC constituency and going by the Assembly election trend where 9 out of 12 SC constituencies were won by AAP, I think this seat with a high Dalit concentration should be won by Rakhi Birla of AAP. Udit Raj is also a Dalit leader and it could be a tough fight.
  • New Delhi - Kejriwal won by a huge margin in the assembly elections from New Delhi, but since he has decided to fight from Varanasi, AAP may not have that much of a chance through Ashish Khetan, especially against BJP's Meenakshi Lekhi, whom any Arnab Goswami follower will want to vote for
  • South Delhi - Ramesh Kumar of Congress is the sitting MP from this region, but according to some reports, Congress workers are trying to woo voters to vote for AAP in this constituency. It will be a close fight between AAP's Sehrawat and BJP's Ramesh Bidhuri. JNU students appear to be siding with Modi, but the number of votes they might add will not be significant. This is one constituency where AAP also has a strong chance.
  • West Delhi - Interesting contest here to gain votes of Jats and Sikhs, Parvesh Verma of BJP is banking on the Jat votes while Jarnail Singh is banking on Sikh votes. Jarnail was the guy who threw shoes at P.Chidambaram for Congress not providing justice  to the 1984 riot victims. Parvesh Verma has tried to dent the Sikh vote bank by roping in Yo Yo Honey Singh and Navjot Sidhu for his campaigns. Congress's sitting MP Mahabal Mishra should have zero chance of winning this seat literally
  • South Goa - The Goan church issued a pre-election advisory to its followers to vote for secular parties, which could prove as a jolt to BJP in Catholics-dominated South Goa. Congress's young candidate Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco has a good chance of beating BJP's Narendra Sawaikar.
The predictions for Delhi and Goa are as follows -

Delhi


NoConstituencyPredicted WinnerPartyOther Top 2 CandidateParty
1CHANDNI CHOWKDr. Harsh VardhanBJPKapil SibalINC
2EAST DELHIMahesh GiriBJPRajmohan GandhiAAP
3NEW DELHIMeenakshi LekhiBJPAshish KhetanAAP
4NORTH EAST DELHIManoj TiwariBJPAnand KumarAAP
5NORTH WEST DELHIRakhi BirlaAAPUdit RajBJP
6SOUTH DELHIRamesh BidhuriBJPCol Devender SehrawatAAP
7WEST DELHIParvesh VermaBJPJarnail SinghAAP


PartySeats
AAP1
BJP6

Goa


NoConstituencyPredicted WinnerPartyOther Top 2 CandidateParty
1NORTH GOAShripad Yesso NaikBJPRavi NaikINC
2SOUTH GOAAleixo Reginaldo LourencoINCNarendra Keshav SawaikarBJP


PartySeats
BJP1
INC1

No comments:

Post a Comment