Possibly the most exciting state of the year, along with Uttar Pradesh. What makes Andhra Pradesh difficult to predict is the radically changed environment with the formation of Telangana and aftermath. Only thing easy to predict is that Congress will be the party winning the least seats. I have divided the analysis into Telangana and Seemandhra to present a better picture.
Telangana
After much hue and cry, the Telangana formation was expedited and became successful thanks to last minute vote bank politics by Congress. But little did they know KCR would play such a master move at the last moment by calling off their alliance after the passage of the T-Bill. But Congress and Sonia Gandhi still have some respect in some areas due to strong local leaders and will not face a complete rout for sure. But TRS stands to gain the most MP seats from this to-be-formed state.
Some key constituencies to watch out for -
Telangana
After much hue and cry, the Telangana formation was expedited and became successful thanks to last minute vote bank politics by Congress. But little did they know KCR would play such a master move at the last moment by calling off their alliance after the passage of the T-Bill. But Congress and Sonia Gandhi still have some respect in some areas due to strong local leaders and will not face a complete rout for sure. But TRS stands to gain the most MP seats from this to-be-formed state.
Some key constituencies to watch out for -
- Malkajgiri - One of the best election battles of the country this year. Sarve Satyanarayana, who won by a landslide majority in 2009 is facing a real tough challenge from TRS's Hanumanth Rao, Lok Satta Party's Jayaprakash Narayan(a bureaucrat-turned politician and also sitting MLA from Kukatpally) and Malla Reddy from the TDP-BJP alliance. Since the constituency hosts a large number of Seemandhra supporters, TRS and Congress will not have a clear edge like in other Telangana regions. Though Jayaprakash Narayan would be the ideal candidate to win from here, it seems it will be other factors like Telangana and Modi wave that would play a bigger role in this semi-urban constituency. I have to say this was the toughest constituency to predict for me, and I could very well be completely wrong when the results come out
- Karimnagar - Strong candidates vie for this all-important constituency which has been a hotbed for Telangana agitations. Ponnam Prabhakar, sitting MP from Congress is banking on his efforts in the Telangana movement and having been a pepper spray victim in Parliament, while TRS's Vinod Kumar is highlighting the work done by him when he was a Congress MP from 2004 to 2009
- Khammam - This constituency falls in Telangana but shares borders with ‘Seemandhra’, so is expected to be a tougher fight compared to other regions in Telangana due to the number of parties in the fray. Sitting MP Nama Nageswara Rao of TDP, founder of the Rs 3,000 crore infrastructure firm Madhucon Group, is engaged in a tight contest with YSRC's P Srinivasa Reddy, also a businessman, and CPI Andhra Pradesh Secretary K Narayana. Since Nageswara won in 2009 by a margin of 1 lakh votes, he is expected to win this time too, riding on the Modi wave, but YSRCP will give a tough fight
- Mahbubnagar - The main contenders here are TRS's Jithender Reddy and Congress's Jaipal Reddy. TRS is confident of a win because this is KCR's constituency in 2009. Should most likely go in their favor, but BJP's Nagam is a political heavyweight in Mahbubnagar district, thanks to his six successes from the Nagarkurnool assembly so he could also pose a tough challenge
- Nizamabad - It is an appalling statistic here that Kavitha, KCR's daughter is the only woman to be contesting all across Telangana. She is expected to pose a tough challenge to Madhu Goud Yaskhi, two-time sitting MP. May the force be with her.
- Secunderabad - Congress's two time MP Anjan Yadav faces major anti-incumbency in this constituency while Bandaru Dattatreya, having been MP from Secunderabad for three terms between 1991 and 1999 is hoping to ride on the Modi wave and emerge victorious. AIMIM's Narla Mohan Rao is expected to gain Muslim votes
- Bhongir - Sitting Congress MP Komatireddy Rajgopal Reddy won by a huge margin in 2009 and has been able to manage good support due to Congress's role in creation of Telangana. It will be interesting to see if TRS's Narsaiah Boora, a surgeon-turned politician will snatch this seat
My constituency-wise predictions are as follows
| No | Constituency | Predicted Winner | Party | Other Top 2 Candidate | Party |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADILABAD | Godam Nagesh | TRS | Ramesh Rathod | TDP |
| 2 | BHONGIR | Dr. Narsaiah Boora | TRS | Komatireddy Rajgopal Reddy | INC |
| 3 | CHEVELLA | Tulla Veerender | TDP | Konda Vishweshwar Reddy | TRS |
| 4 | HYDERABAD | Asaduddin Owaisi | AIMIM | Rashid Shareef | TRS |
| 5 | KARIMNAGAR | Ponnam Prabhakar | INC | Vinod Kumar Boinapally | TRS |
| 6 | KHAMMAM | Nama Nageswara Rao | TDP | Ponguleti Srinivasa Reddy | YSRCP |
| 7 | MAHABUBABAD | P. Balram | INC | Prof. Azmeera Seetaram Naik | TRS |
| 8 | MAHBUBNAGAR | Ap Jithender Reddy | TRS | Janardhan Reddy Nagam | BJP |
| 9 | MALKAJGIRI | Ch.Malla Reddy | TDP | Dr.Jayaprakash Narayan N | Lok Satta Party |
| 10 | MEDAK | Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao | TRS | Chaganla Narendra Nath | BJP |
| 11 | NAGARKURNOOL | Dr. Manda Jagannath | TRS | Yellaiah Nandi | INC |
| 12 | NALGONDA | Gutha Sukhender Reddy | INC | Palla Rajeshwar Reddy | TRS |
| 13 | NIZAMABAD | Kavitha Kalvakuntla | TRS | Madhu Yaskhi Goud | INC |
| 14 | PEDDAPALLI | Gaddam Vivekanand | INC | Janapati Sarat Babu | TDP |
| 15 | SECUNDERABAD | Bandaru Dattatreya | BJP | Anjan Kumar Yadav | INC |
| 16 | WARRANGAL | Kadiyam Srihari | TRS | Rajaiah Siricilla | INC |
| 17 | ZAHIRABAD | Suresh Kumar Shetkar | INC | B.B. Patil | TRS |
The seats tally prediction is as follows -
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| AIMIM | 1 |
| BJP | 1 |
| INC | 5 |
| TDP | 3 |
| TRS | 7 |
Seemandhra
This residual state of Andhra will be even more of a tough contest due to the Jagan factor, and the TDP-BJP alliance's "Modi for PM, Naidu for CM" themed campaign. YSRCP has done tremendous amounts of groundwork much before the election and allegedly hours before the election as well. But allegations fly from both sides, and though there are criminal cases against their head Jagan at least two major YSRCP candidates, their connect with the population, especially in rural areas is unmatched by other parties. The sympathy wave for YSR's death is still present, and along with their campaign pitch of continuing YSR's unfinished schemes, YSRCP is most likely to win most seats from Seemandhra. The TDP-BJP alliance will not fall behind majorly though. TDP have an advantage in many constituencies and are banking on the Modi wave and the sops-based approach to win over both urban and rural votes.
Some important constituencies to watch out for -
- Guntur - TDP's Jay Galla, the vice-chairman of Amara Raja Group and former chairman of Confederation of Indian Industries, A.P is contesting the elections for the first time, and has been supported in his rallies by his brother-in-law Mahesh Babu. Though this is not enough to say he win the election with ease, it should go in his favor against former MP from YSRC, Vallabhaneni Balashourie
- Narasaraopet - A mineral-rich constituency, it is a battle between two industrial biggies YSRC's Ayodhya Rami Reddy of Ramky group vs tobacco baron Rayapati Sambasiva Rao of Jayalakshmi Group, both claiming to make it a major industrial and educational hub. The region, known for tobacco, chilli and cotton production, suffers from inadequate agricultural infrastructure. Since there are quite a few projects started by YSR but incomplete, YSRC is using this also as a pitch. Should be a very close contest
- Rajampet - Probably the most interesting contest in Seemandhra between BJP's Purandeswari(NTR's daughter), who is banking on NTR supporters' votebank, and YSRCP's P.V.Midhun Reddy who is banking on Jagan's strength in the assembly constituencies in this region. Purandeswari was let down by being given this constituency and has accepted that it will be a challenge to win here
- Kadapa - Since Jagan is contesting in the Assembly elections, his cousin Y.S.Avinash Reddy is contesting for YSRC. In this stronghold of the YSRs he should sail through easily, though not on such a huge margin as Jagan did
- Vizianagaram - Called the battle royale between descendants of two royal dynasties, this is expected to be a close battle between Gajapathi Raju from Vizianagaram Royal family and Baby Nayana, the son of a former ruler of Bobbilli. Nayana has also been the Bobbili municipal chairperson in 2005, and has some good visibility in the region
- Tirupati - This will be a 3-cornered contest between sitting MP Chinta Mohan of Congress, BJP's Karumanchi Jayaram who was a DSP before joining the election and YSRCP's Varaprasad Rao Velagapalli who will look to cash in on Jagan's popularity in some of the assembly constituencies that fall within Tirupati
- Kakinada - Two time sitting MP Union Minister Pallam Raju who beat Chalamalasetty Sunil who was with Chiranjeevi's People Republic Party last elections is most likely to lose to him this time, but because Sunil is with YSRCP this time around. TDP's Thota Narasimham also should be able to gain more votes than Pallam Raju
- Kurnool - Jayasurya Kotla is two time MP from this region, but is most likely to lose against YSRCP's Butta Renuka who is from the Padmashali community which is dominant in many parts of this Lok Sabha segment
- Machilipatnam - Out of 13 lakh electors in this constituency, nearly 50 per cent are from BC community and 2 lakh from the Kapu community, according to estimates. So both YSRC and TDP are playing the caste card majorly here. YSRC's Kolusu Partha Sarathy was previously a Congress state minister and is expected to be the front runner here, but it will be a close contest against TDP
- Chittoor - YSRC's Samanya Kiran, though having great credentials as a Ph.D in Telugu and being a lecturer in Hyderabad, joined the party as late as December 2013 and is considered by many as a new face who will not be able to win against the strength of TDP's sitting MP Naramalli Sivaprasad. But it could be a close contest.
- Ongole - It will be a close contest between Jagan's uncle Y.V.Subba Reddy and TDP's Magunta Reddy who dealt a big blow to Congress by joining TDP in April
- Bapatla - In this constituency, Congress's Panabaka Lakshmi will face a tough fight from TDP's Malyadri Sriram, who has been supported well by pawan Kalyan who has a huge fan base here
- Anakapalle - It's mainly TDP vs YSRC in this rural constituency. TDP's Muttamsetti Srinivasa Rao is a popular face for his Avanti group of institutions, while YSRC has fielded a young candidate Gudivada Amarnath, son of late ex-Congress Minister Gurunath Rao. Though a lot of villagers seem to be of the opinion that YSRC can be given a try, Avanti Srinivasa Rao has much more clout and is banking on the Modi wave to take him through
The constituency-wise predictions are as follows -
| No | Constituency | Predicted Winner | Party | Other Top 2 Candidate | Party |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AMALAPURAM | Pandula Ravindra Babu | TDP | GV Harsha Kumar | Jai Samaikyandhra Party |
| 2 | ANAKAPALLE | Muttamsetti Srinivasa Rao | TDP | Gudivada Amarnadh | YSRCP |
| 3 | ANANTAPUR | Anantha Venkataramireddy | YSRCP | J.C. Divakar Reddi | TDP |
| 4 | ARAKU | Kothapalli Geetha | YSRCP | Kishore Chandra Deo | INC |
| 5 | BAPATLA | Malyadri Sriram | TDP | Panabaka Lakshmi | INC |
| 6 | CHITTOOR | Naramalli Sivaprasad | TDP | G.Samanya Kiran | YSRCP |
| 7 | ELURU | Thota Chandra Sekhar | YSRCP | Maganti Venkateswara Rao | TDP |
| 8 | GUNTUR | Jayadev Galla | TDP | Balashowry Vallabhaneni | YSRCP |
| 9 | HINDUPUR | Kristappa Nimmala | TDP | Duddukunta Sreedhar Reddy | YSRCP |
| 10 | KADAPA | Y.S. Avinash Reddy | YSRCP | Srinivasa Reddy Reddeppagari | TDP |
| 11 | KAKINADA | Chalamalasetty Sunil | YSRCP | Thota Narasimham | TDP |
| 12 | KURNOOL | Butta Renuka | YSRCP | Kotla Jaya Surya Prakash Reddy | INC |
| 13 | MACHILIPATNAM | Kolusu Partha Sarathy | YSRCP | Konakalla Narayana Rao | TDP |
| 14 | NANDYAL | S.P.Y Reddy | YSRCP | N.Md.Farook | TDP |
| 15 | NARASARAOPET | Ayodhya Ramireddy Alla | YSRCP | Sambasiva Rao Rayapati | TDP |
| 16 | NARSAPURAM | Vanka Ravindranath | YSRCP | Gokaraju Ganga Raju | BJP |
| 17 | NELLORE | Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy | YSRCP | Adala Prabhakara Reddy | TDP |
| 18 | ONGOLE | Magunta Sreenivasulu Reddy | TDP | Y.V.Subba Reddy | YSRCP |
| 19 | RAJAHMUNDRY | Murali Mohan Maganti | TDP | Boddu Venkataramana Chowdary | YSRCP |
| 20 | RAJAMPET | P.V.Midhun Reddy | YSRCP | D. Purandeswari | BJP |
| 21 | SRIKAKULAM | Rammohannaidu Kinjarapu | TDP | Shanthi Reddy | YSRCP |
| 22 | TIRUPATI | Karumanchi Jayaram | BJP | Varaprasad Rao Velagapalli | YSRCP |
| 23 | VIJAYAWADA | Koneru Rajendra Prasad | YSRCP | Srinivas Kesineni | TDP |
| 24 | VISHAKHAPATNAM | Y.S Vijayamma | YSRCP | Kambhampati Hari Babu | BJP |
| 25 | VIZIANAGARAM | RVSKK Ranga Rao a.k.a Baby Nayana | YSRCP | Pusapati Ashok Gajapathi Raju | TDP |
The seats tally prediction is as follows -
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| TDP | 9 |
| YSRCP | 15 |
| BJP | 1 |
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