J&K and HP

I have never before read about the political parties in Jammu and Kashmir, but doing this activity gave a lot of insight. The two largest constituencies of India by size are in J&K and HP - Ladakh and Mandi respectively, though the voter strength in those areas is nowhere near any other part of the country. J&K's 2009 MP tally was 3 from JKN(Jammu & Kashmir National Conference - Farooq Abdullah's party), 2 from Congress and 1 Independent. Himachal Pradesh had 3 from BJP and 1 from Congress.

This year, in J&K, JKPDP is emerging as a strong contender, and it will be interesting to see if BJP can make any inroads. In Himachal Pradesh the tally is most likely going to be the same. But AAP have fielded some influential people and there is an outside chance they might make it in one of the constituencies. Statewise predictions below

Himachal Pradesh

Only 4 constituencies, so here's the brief on each:

• Hamirpur - Anurag Thakur of BJP is 2-time sitting MP in this constituency and had won convincingly in 2004 and 2009, but the presence of AAP's Kamal Kanta Batra, mother of Kargil martyr Captain Vikram Batra is expected to pose a challenge to both BJP and Congress. It will be a close fight
• Kangra - Rajan Sushant, sitting MP from BJP is now contesting on behalf of AAP. This is going to be the closest battle of the state. BJP has fielded Shanta Kumar, a senior leader, 3-time MP and ex-chief minister.
• Shimla - Shimla has traditionally been a Congress stronghold, but BJP's Virender Kashyap won the seat in 2009 and is looking to retain it comfortably but will face a tough contest from Congress's sitting MLA Mohan Lal Brakta who is a close aide of the CM
• Mandi - The sitting MP from Congress is Prathibha Singh, wife of CM Virbhadra Singh and should be able to retain the seat against BJP's Ram Swaroop Sharma

Constituency-wise results:

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	HAMIRPUR	Anurag Singh Thakur	BJP	Kamal Kanta Batra	AAP
2	KANGRA	Shanta Kumar	BJP	Rajan Sushant	AAP
3	MANDI	Prathibha Singh	INC	Ram Swaroop Sharma	BJP
4	SHIMLA	Virender Kashyap	BJP	Mohan Lal Brakta	INC

Seats tally prediction

Party	Seats
BJP	3
INC	1

Jammu & Kashmir

A brief on all 6 constituencies -

• Anantnag - Mehboob vs Mehbooba in this constituency. JKN's Mirza Mehboob is the sitting MP, while Mehbooba Mufti(president of PDP) will look to gain from the party's strength in the assembly in this region(12 out of 16 MLAs in South Kashmir are from PDP). This constituency witnessed one of the lowest turnouts at 28%
• Baramulla - JKPDP's Muzaffar Baig, a sitting MLA and former deputy chief minister of Jammu & Kashmir, is pitted against ruling party National Conference's incumbent Shareef ud Din Shariq.  The entire LoC passes through its three districts, the constituency has 15 assembly segments and, involves various ethnic groups: Kashmiris, Gujjars, Pahadis and Sikhs.  Baig uses his command over different languages to connect with different groups in their own tongue. It will be a close contest here for sure. PDP lost by a huge margin in 2009, and the constituency has been JKN's for the last 4 terms.
• Jammu -Madan Lal Sharma is 2-time sitting MP, but Congress hasn't actively campaigned for him, while BJP is buoyed by the increased voter turnout witnessed(68%), especially among the youth(there were 50000 newly registered voters) and is hoping they'll be able to bag this seat.
• Ladakh - The largest constituency in India in terms of size, but with very few voters(Muslims and Buddhists form the majority). It recorded 63% polling. There seems to be good support for NC rebel Syed Mohd Kazim who's contesting as an independent. BJP's Thupstan Chhewang was one of the earliest proponents of Ladakh Union Territory Forum and had won in 2004 as an independent. Rajnath Singh has promised to back the UT demand. But even Congress has it in its manifesto, making the contest very interesting.
• Srinagar - This constituency has remained with JKN since 1977 and was even uncontested by any other party in 2 years(1980 and 1989). JKPDP's Tariq Hameed Karra will put up a good fight, but it is going to be an uphill task to defeat Farooq Abdullah
• Udhampur - The most hotly contested constituency in J&K, Union Health minister Ghulam Nabi Azad will battle it out against JKN's Bhim Singh, BJP's Jitendra Singh and PDP's Arshad Malik. This is incidentally the first time Azad is contesting from his home state. Since Muslim and Hindu votes are more or less equal here, it is expected to be a close contest. BJP has held this constituency from 1996 to 2003, but it has always been Congress's stronghold before and after that. Whether Modi wave will have any effect here will be seen from the outcome of this constituency.

Constituency-wise predictions:

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	ANANTNAG	Mehbooba Mufti	JKPDP	Mirza Mehboob Beg	JKN
2	BARAMULLA	Muzaffar Hussain Baig	JKPDP	Sharief Ud-Din Shariq	JKN
3	JAMMU	Jugal Kishore Sharma	BJP	Madan Lal Sharma	INC
4	LADAKH	Syed Mohd Kazim	Independent	Thupstan Chhewang	BJP
5	SRINAGAR	Farooq Abdullah	JKN	Tariq Hameed Karra	JKPDP
6	UDHAMPUR	Ghulam Nabi Azad	INC	Jitendra Singh	BJP

Seats tally prediction:

Party	Seats
BJP	1
INC	1
Independent	1
JKN	1
JKPDP	2