Rajasthan

Having swept the Assembly elections in 2013 convincingly, BJP is the clear leader in this state and Vasundhara Raje has expressed confidence that BJP should be able to win all 25 seats. This will be difficult to achieve, especially in the light of Jaswant Singh being sidelined by the party and him contesting as an independent from Barmer. There are a few Congress Union Ministers too who will be a tough challenge.

The interesting contests in this state -

• Barmer - After being denied a ticket by BJP, Jaswant Singh who left Darjeeling is contesting as an Independent in his home town Barmer. State CM Vasundhara Raje has made every move possible to stop him from eating into BJP's Rajput votes. It should be a close contest, but Jaswant should prevail
• Ajmer - Sachin Pilot, the 36-year old sitting MP from Ajmer and a Union Minister, is seeking a second term for his development agenda. But RSS-backed BJP candidate Sanwarlal Jat is banking on the popularity of his party's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi and their performance in the assembly elections in Ajmer where they won 8 out of 8 seats in Ajmer. One of the promising faces of Congress may have to lose out due to the anti-incumbency factor.
• Dausa -  BJP has fielded former DGP Harish Chandra Meena, while fighting against him is his own brother and Congress nominee Namo Narain Meena. There's another Meena in the fray too. Kirori Lal Meena of the National People's Party is a popular face here and could be a potential winner too. This has historically been Congress's stronghold from 1991 to 2004 when Rajesh Pilot and Sachin Pilot held the constituency.
• Jaipur Rural - Even though a first timer, sportsman-turned-politician Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore has gained ground fast in this constituency where he faces Congress's veteran former union minister C P Joshi, who has shifted from his earlier constituency Bhilwara to Jaipur rural this time
• Jhunjhunu - A triangular contest is on the cards here as BJP's only woman candidate from the state, Santosh Ahlawat faces Congress's Rajbala Ola and Independent Rajkumar Sharma. BJP faces the ire of the Rajputs due to their snubbing of Jaswant Singh. Olas have held this seat for the last 5 terms though the margins have not always been large.
• Sikar - This is the only seat I am predicting as a win for Congress. Since BJP rebel Subhash Maharia is contesting here with the support of Jaswant Singh, BJP votes are expected to split, giving Congress's Pratab Singh Jat an edge.
• Tonk-Sawai Madho - Mohammed Azharuddin who left his Moradabad seat and is contesting for Congress here, but doesn't stand much of a chance as he is considered an outsider and Meenas are the dominant community here, and their vote will hold sway over Muslim votes

Congress Congress will be a close contender in Bhilwara, where the Youth Congress president, Ashok Chandna is contesting and in Nagaur, where Dr. Jyoti Mirdha, a Congress sitting MP who is well respected in her constituency is contesting

My constituency-wise predictions are as follows

No	State	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	RAJASTHAN	AJMER	Sanwar Lal Jat	BJP	Sachin Pilot	INC
2	RAJASTHAN	ALWAR	Chand Nath	BJP	Bhanwar Jitendra Singh	INC
3	RAJASTHAN	BANSWARA	Manshankar Ninama	BJP	Smt. Resham Malviya	INC
4	RAJASTHAN	BARMER	Jaswant Singh	Independent	Col. Sona Ram	BJP
5	RAJASTHAN	BHARATPUR	Bahadur Singh	BJP	Dr.Suresh Jatav	INC
6	RAJASTHAN	BHILWARA	Subhash Baheria	BJP	Ashok Chandna	INC
7	RAJASTHAN	BIKANER	Arjun Ram Meghwal	BJP	Er. Shankar Pannu	INC
8	RAJASTHAN	CHITTORGARH	Chandra Prakash Joshi	BJP	Girija Vyas	INC
9	RAJASTHAN	CHURU	Rahul Kaswan	BJP	Pratap Singh	INC
10	RAJASTHAN	DAUSA	Harish Chandra Meena	BJP	Kirori Lal Meena	NPEP
11	RAJASTHAN	GANGANAGAR	Nihalchand Meghwal	BJP	Bhanwarlal Meghwal	INC
12	RAJASTHAN	JAIPUR	Ramcharan Bohara	BJP	Dr. Mahesh Joshi	INC
13	RAJASTHAN	JAIPUR RURAL	Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore	BJP	Dr. C.P Joshi	INC
14	RAJASTHAN	JALORE	Devji Patel	BJP	Anjana Udai Lal	INC
15	RAJASTHAN	JHALAWAR-BARAN	Dushyant Singh	BJP	Pramod Bhaya	INC
16	RAJASTHAN	JHUNJHUNU	Smt. Santosh Ahlawat	BJP	Smt. Rajbala Ola	INC
17	RAJASTHAN	JODHPUR	Gajendrasingh Shekhawat	BJP	Smt. Chandresh Kumari	INC
18	RAJASTHAN	KARAULI-DHOLPUR	Manoj Rajoria	BJP	Lakkhiram	INC
19	RAJASTHAN	KOTA	Om Birla	BJP	Ijyaraj Singh	INC
20	RAJASTHAN	NAGAUR	Chhotu Ram Chaudhary	BJP	Dr. Jyoti Mirdha	INC
21	RAJASTHAN	PALI	P P Choudhary	BJP	Munni	INC
22	RAJASTHAN	RAJSAMAND	Hari Om Singh Rathore	BJP	Gopal Singh Shekhawat	INC
23	RAJASTHAN	SIKAR	Pratap Singh Jat	INC	Subhash Maharia	Independent
24	RAJASTHAN	TONK-SAWAI MADHO	Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria	BJP	Mohammed Azharuddin	INC
25	RAJASTHAN	UDAIPUR	Arjunlal Meena	BJP	Raghuvir Singh	INC

The seats tally prediction is as follows

Party	Seats
BJP	23
INC	1
Independent	1