Jharkhand

Jharkhand will see some of the most keenly contested elections, as the parties in the fray are numerous and strong in their own domains. There's Jharkhand Mukti Morcha(JMM), which is the state ruling party, which has allied with Congress and RJD. JMM's strength is tribal support due to their founder Shibu Soren's fight against unfair practices of money lenders against tribals and backward castes. There's JVM(P) - Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), formed by former Jharkhand chief minister Babulal Marandi. And there's AJSU(All Jharkhand Students Union), under Sudesh Mahto who's a strong influence among youth. The current MPs distribution is as follows - BJP : 7, JMM : 2, JVM : 2, Congress: 1 and Independents : 2

BJP is looking to win more than 10 seats, and maybe even all 14. But that is going to be highly unlikely in this Maoist-hit state. There are some really close contests in the offing in this state.

• Dumka - One of the most important seats for the JMM-Congress alliance as JMM President Shibu Soren is aiming for his 4th consecutive win. But making his task tough is JVM's Babu Lal Marandi, the state’s first chief minister who has left his Koderma seat to contest against Shibu Soren in an attempt to bring about the downfall of JMM. But Soren still has a great voter base in tribals and backward castes. BJP's Sunil Soren lost by a small margin in 2009, so if the fight this time is mainly between JMM and JVM, he could also look to scrape through riding on the Modi wave
• Hazaribagh - Yashwant Sinha's son Jayant Sinha is a IIT Delhi and Harvard alumnus and an ex-employee of Mckinsey is returning to India after nearly 25 years to fight in the constituency his father won in 2009 by a margin of about 40000 votes. Perhaps the most well-educated candidate in BJP this year, it should be interesting to see if he has the capability to make Indian villagers vote for him. He will face a contest mainly from Congress's sitting MLA Saurabh Narain Singh and Loknath Mahto who was an ex-BJP MLA but quit recently to contest on an All Jharkhand Students' Union ticket
• Ranchi - Congress's Subodh Sahay is two-time MP here and won by a very close margin last elections. The Ranchi contestants this time are much stronger and it is expected to be a close call. BJP's four-time consecutive MP Ram Tahal Choudhary, JVM's Amitabh Choudhary(influential president of the Jharkhand State Cricket Association and former ADG of Police), AJSU Party chief Sudesh Mahto who is a popular youth leader, Bandhu Tirkey of Trinamool Congress
• Jamshedpur - In this industrial area of the Tatas, JVM's Ajay Kumar(an IPS officer who also is a doctor, holds an MBA degree, and currently CEO of Max Neeman, a co. of Max group) is the sitting MP having won the bypolls in 2011 by a huge margin of 1.56 lakh votes, but BJP's candidate Bidyut Mahato has gained a lot of support in rural areas. If JMM and JVM split muslim votes, urban votes should go mostly in BJP's favor
• Khunti - A highly crime-ridden place, Khunti is on the Union home ministry's list of worst Maoist-hit districts in the country. Candidates here have not even been able to campaign in rural areas due to rebel threats. BJP's Karia Munda, a 7-time MP won in 2009 by a huge margin, but this time a sitting MLA Anosh Ekka of Jharkhand Party allegedly in the good books of PLFI rebels is expected to give him a very tough fight
• Rajmahal - The battle of the deserters. Hemlal Murmu was one of JMM founder members and a Shibu Soren loyalist for ages before switching to BJP a month ago when he felt insulted by chief minister Hemant Soren’s decision to induct Youth Congress leader Vijay as JMM’s MP nominee from Rajmahal. Whether Murmu will be able gain votes of his traditional JMM vote bank will be crucial to this constituency's outcome
• Singhbhum -Madhu Koda is the sitting MP, but this time he is campaigning for his wife Geetha, who is contesting on a Jai Bharat Samantha Party ticket. Madhu has great respect in the rural areas and should be able to campaign successfully, but it will be a close contest against Congress's Chitrasen Sinku, JVMP's Dashrath Gagrai and BJP candidate Laxman Giluwa
• Dhanbad - BJP's P.N.Singh has a strong presence in this constituency, having been an MLA for 3 terms before becoming an MP in 2009. His main opponent Chandrasekhar Dubey is contesting from Trinamool Congress after being denied a ticket by the JMM-Congress alliance. Other important contestants are JVM’s Bokaro MLA Samresh Singh and Congress's Ajay Dubey
• Godda - This constituency has wavered between INC and BJP in the last two years. Congress's Ansari lost to sitting MP Nishikant Dubey by a margin of 6000 votes last time. But this year, with competition from JVM's Pradip Yadav, BJP's competition is expected to split their votes among themselves
• Lohardaga - Chamra Linda, currently a sitting MLA in Hemant Soren's government contested in 2009 as an independent and lost closely to sitting MP Sudarshan Bhagat. This year, contesting for Trinamool Congress, he is expected to pose a tough challenge to him

The constituency-wise predictions are as below

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	CHATRA	Sunil Kumar Singh	BJP	Nilam Devi	JVM(P)
2	DHANBAD	Pashupati Nath Singh	BJP	Chandra Shekhar Dubey	AITC
3	DUMKA	Babu Lal Marandi	JVM(P)	Shibu Soren	JMM
4	GIRIDIH	Ravindra Pandey	BJP	Jagarnath Mahto	JMM
5	GODDA	Nishikant Dubey	BJP	Furkan Ansari	INC
6	HAZARIBAGH	Jayant Sinha	BJP	Loknath Mahto	AJSUP
7	JAMSHEDPUR	Bidyut Baran Mahato	BJP	Ajay Kumar	JVM
8	KHUNTI	Karia Munda	BJP	Anosh Ekka	JKP
9	KODARMA	Pranav Kumar Verma	JVM(P)	Ravindra Kumar Ray	BJP
10	LOHARDAGA	Chamra Linda	AITC	Sudarshan Bhagat	BJP
11	PALAMAU	Vishnu Dayal Ram	BJP	Kameshwar Baitha	AITC
12	RAJMAHAL	Hemlal Murmu	BJP	Vijay Kumar Hansdak	JMM
13	RANCHI	Ram Tahal Choudhary	BJP	Amitabh Choudhary	JVM
14	SINGHBHUM	Geeta Koda	JBSP	Laxman Giluwa	BJP

The seats tally prediction is as follows

Party	Seats
AITC	1
BJP	10
JBSP	1
JVM(P)	2

The seats I have predicted as non-BJP wins could go any which way, and Shibu Soren or Sunil Soren could very well pip Marandi in Dumka.