UDF(United Democratic Front), consisting of INC, Kerala Congress and IUML(Indian Union Muslim League) won 16 out of 20 seats in the previous LS elections in 2009. This year around, they definitely cannot win as many seats, due to both Congress' performance at the centre and accusations against Oommen Chandy's state government. Their opposition, LDF, led by CPI(M) is mainly playing caste-based politics and looking to gain votes from the Communist support base and the minorities. BJP hasn't sent a single MP from this state yet and it is trying very hard to change that using the Modi wave. But whether it will have any major impact remains to be seen. As per my predictions, UDF could win 9 seats, LDF 10 and BJP 1. Interesting constituencies to watch out for are
- Thiruvananthapuram - Shashi Tharoor had a landslide win last elections, despite being an outsider. The voters in this constituency value achievements and credibility over anything else, so it will be interesting to see if Mr. Tharoor can win a second time. His main opposition here are O.Rajagopal of BJP, an 84-year old veteran, and Bennett Abraham, of CPI(M).
- Chalakudy - Innocent, a Malayalam movie comedian is contesting here as an Independent. Being a cancer survivor and having the backing of CPI(M), he should have a strong chance against P.C.Chacko of Congress
- Attingal - One of the constituencies where BJP has a strong chance, having fielded a woman candidate - Girija Kumary against A.Sampath of CPI(M). This constituency has 595005 female voters compared to 496427 male voters. This could turn out to be a decisive factor in Girija's favor.
- Pathanamthitta - Anto Antony is the sitting MP and has a good support base in the constituency, but his strong backing to a controversial Aranmula airport project could divert some votes from him
- Idukki - Kasturirangan report which would be implemented if Congress comes to power is a major factor, and opponents are using this as mileage to gain votes. Low voter turnout has also caused some rifts within Congress post elections, indicating LDF has a good chance to win here
So my constituency-wise predictions are as follows -
| No | Constituency | Predicted Winner | Party | Other Top 2 Candidate | Party |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ALAPUZZHA | C B Chandrababu | CPI(M) | K C Venugopal | INC |
| 2 | ALATHUR | P.K.Biju | CPI(M) | Sheeba K A | INC |
| 3 | ATTINGAL | Girija Kumary | BJP | A Sampath | CPI(M) |
| 4 | CHALAKUDY | Innocent | Independent | P.C Chacko | INC |
| 5 | ERNAKULAM | Christy Fernandez | Independent | K.V. Thomas | INC |
| 6 | IDUKKI | Adv.Joice George | Independent | Adv.Dean Kuriakose | INC |
| 7 | KANNUR | P K Sreemathi | CPI(M) | P C Mohanan | BJP |
| 8 | KASARAGOD | T.Siddique | INC | P Karunakaran | CPI(M) |
| 9 | KOLLAM | N.K.Premachandran | RSP | M.A. Baby | CPI(M) |
| 10 | KOTTAYAM | Jose K Mani | KEC(M) | Mathew T Thomas | JD(S) |
| 11 | KOZHIKODE | A. Vijayaraghavan | CPI(M) | C.K. Padmanabhan | BJP |
| 12 | MALAPPURAM | E. Ahamed | IUML | P.K. Saniaba | CPI(M) |
| 13 | MAVELIKKARA | Chengara Surendran | CPI(M) | Kodikunnil Suresh | INC |
| 14 | PALAKKAD | M B Rajesh | CPI(M) | Smt. Shobha Surendran | BJP |
| 15 | PATHANAMTHITTA | Anto Antony | INC | Peelipose Thomas | Independent |
| 16 | PONNANI | E. T. Mohammed Basheer | IUML | Abdurahiman Varikottil | Independent |
| 17 | THIRUVANANTHAPURAM | Dr. Shashi Tharoor | INC | O Rajagopal | BJP |
| 18 | THRISSUR | C N Jayadevan | CPI(M) | Dhanapalan | INC |
| 19 | VADAKKARA | Mullappally Ramachandran | INC | Adv.A.N.Shamseer | CPI(M) |
| 20 | WAYANAD | M I Shanavas | INC | Sathyan Mokeri | CPI(M) |
The seats tally would be as follows
| Party | Seats |
|---|---|
| BJP | 1 |
| CPI(M) | 7 |
| INC | 5 |
| Independent | 3 |
| IUML | 2 |
| KEC(M) | 1 |
| RSP | 1 |
Since all independents I have predicted as winners are contesting with CPI(M)'s support, LDF's count would be 10. BJP's sole win is also doubtful, which if goes to CPI(M), their tally would be 11. UDF's count will at max be 9, adding up seats for Congress, IUML, KEC and RSP.
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