Madhya Pradesh is one of the states where BJP is expected to win convincingly, and looking at their performance in last year's assembly elections, it seems more or less quite a predictable outcome. In the Assembly elections the BJP won 165 seats compared to Congress's 58. But more importantly, BJP polled more votes than the Congress in 26 out of the 29 Lok Sabha constituencies. Madhya Pradesh has remained BJP's stronghold for quite some time now, and it is only in a few constituencies that a close battle is expected. Some important constituencies to look out for -
- Chhindwara - This should be one of the most closely-fought battles where Sitting MLA Chandrabhan Choudhary is contesting Sitting MP Kamal Nath in Congress' bastion. I predict a win for Kamal Nath, but it would be a close call
- Sidhi - This is a constituency where it will be a battle of youth vs experience. 36-year old Riti Pathak will find it difficult to overcome 66-year old Congress veteran Indrajeet Kumar. Riti Pathak even has a Facebook page though. It remains to be seen if the youth of this constituency have voted in large numbers for her.
- Bhopal - AAP's Rachna Dhingra(who gave up a job with Accenture in the US to return to India to participate in the polls) would be a decent threat to BJP's dominance in this constituency. The rallies have used the Bhopal Gas tragedy as a plank to appeal to the voters promising justice to victims.
- Damoh - Though Mahendra Pratap Singh of Congress is a strong contender, there are rumors that he could defect to BJP, making this an interesting contest.
- Guna - The land of the royal family of Scindias, it is a make or break constituency for Congress. It will be a tough challenge for Jyotiraditya Scindia to retain the seat, but going by the campaign efforts, it looks likely he will be able to manage it
- Indore - Fondly known as 'Tai', 70-year-old Sumitra Mahajan had defeated former chief minister of Madhya Pradesh Prakash Chand Sethi in 1989 and since then has been a 7-time MP. She should win the 8th time easily.
- Mandla - This will be an interesting constituency to watch as both previous LS elections and recent assembly elections were won by Congress. But Modi had a successful rally in this town and this could swing votes to BJP
- Morena - Anoop Mishra who is the BJP candidate contesting here is Atal Behari Vajpayee's nephew and hence has a strong chance
- Rajgarh - Even though this is a Congress stronghold and the Cong candidate being a proxy for Digvijay Singh, in the recent assembly elections, the BJP won six out of the eight assembly segments that fall within Rajgarh. So it will be an interesting contest
- Rewa - Rewa was one of the constituencies where Modi had to cut short his speech due to his helicopter being delayed in Delhi. It could be a tough fight for them here, also because it is one of the constituencies where a non-BJP/Congress party has the sitting MP - Deoraj Patel of BSP
- Ujjain - This is a constituency where there is a strong anti-incumbency wave against INC. Ujjain did not see Modi turn up for a rally, but His election managers organised 3D public meetings at a number of places, besides hosting the online tea parties
So the constituency-wise predictions are as follows
| No | Constituency | Predicted Winner | Party | Other Top 2 Candidate | Party |
|---|
| 1 | BALAGHAT | Bodhsingh Bhagat | BJP | Anubha Munjare | SP |
| 2 | BETUL | Jyoti Dhurve | BJP | Ajay Shah Makrai | INC |
| 3 | BHIND | Dr. Bhagirath Prasad | BJP | Manish Katroliya | BSP |
| 4 | BHOPAL | Alok Sanjar | BJP | Rachna Dhingra | AAP |
| 5 | CHHINDWARA | Kamal Nath | INC | Chandrabhan Singh Choudhary | BJP |
| 6 | DAMOH | Prahlad Singh Patel | BJP | Mahendra Pratap Singh | INC |
| 7 | DEWAS | Manohar Untwal | BJP | Sajjan Singh Verma | INC |
| 8 | DHAR | Savitri Thakur | BJP | Umang Singhar | INC |
| 9 | GUNA | Jyotiraditya M. Scindia | INC | Jaibhansingh Pawaiya | BJP |
| 10 | GWALIOR | Narendra Singh Tomar | BJP | Ashok Singh | INC |
| 11 | HOSHANGABAD | Uday Pratap Singh | BJP | Devendra Patel | INC |
| 12 | INDORE | Sumitra Mahajan | BJP | Satynarayan Patel | INC |
| 13 | JABALPUR | Rakesh Singh | BJP | Vivekkrishna Tankha | INC |
| 14 | KHAJURAHO | Nagendra Singh | BJP | Raja Pateriya | INC |
| 15 | KHANDWA | Nandkumar Singh Chouhan | BJP | Arun Subhash Chandra Yadav | INC |
| 16 | KHARGONE | Subhash Patel | BJP | Ramesh Chensingh | INC |
| 17 | MANDLA | Faggan Singh Kulaste | BJP | Omkar Singh Markam | INC |
| 18 | MANDSOUR | Sudhir Gupta | BJP | Meenakshi Natarajan | INC |
| 19 | MORENA | Anoop Mishra | BJP | Brindawan Singh Sikarwar | BSP |
| 20 | RAJGARH | Rodmal Nagar | BJP | Narayan Singh | INC |
| 21 | RATLAM | Dileep Singh Bhuriya | BJP | Kantilal Bhuriya | INC |
| 22 | REWA | Janardan Mishra | BJP | Deoraj Singh Patel | BSP |
| 23 | SAGAR | Laxmi Narayan Yadav | BJP | Govind Singh Rajput | INC |
| 24 | SATNA | Ganesh Singh | BJP | Ajay Arjun Singh | INC |
| 25 | SHAHDOL | Dalpat Singh Paraste | BJP | Rajes Nandini Singh | INC |
| 26 | SIDHI | Indrajeet Kumar | INC | Riti Pathak | BJP |
| 27 | TIKAMGARH | Dr. Virendra Kumar | BJP | Kamlesh Kumar | INC |
| 28 | UJJAIN | Chintamani Malviya | BJP | Premchand Guddu | INC |
| 29 | VIDISHA | Sushma Swaraj | BJP | Lakshman Singh | INC |
And the seats tally would be as follows
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