Jharkhand

Jharkhand will see some of the most keenly contested elections, as the parties in the fray are numerous and strong in their own domains. There's Jharkhand Mukti Morcha(JMM), which is the state ruling party, which has allied with Congress and RJD. JMM's strength is tribal support due to their founder Shibu Soren's fight against unfair practices of money lenders against tribals and backward castes. There's JVM(P) - Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), formed by former Jharkhand chief minister Babulal Marandi. And there's AJSU(All Jharkhand Students Union), under Sudesh Mahto who's a strong influence among youth. The current MPs distribution is as follows - BJP : 7, JMM : 2, JVM : 2, Congress: 1 and Independents : 2

BJP is looking to win more than 10 seats, and maybe even all 14. But that is going to be highly unlikely in this Maoist-hit state. There are some really close contests in the offing in this state.

• Dumka - One of the most important seats for the JMM-Congress alliance as JMM President Shibu Soren is aiming for his 4th consecutive win. But making his task tough is JVM's Babu Lal Marandi, the state’s first chief minister who has left his Koderma seat to contest against Shibu Soren in an attempt to bring about the downfall of JMM. But Soren still has a great voter base in tribals and backward castes. BJP's Sunil Soren lost by a small margin in 2009, so if the fight this time is mainly between JMM and JVM, he could also look to scrape through riding on the Modi wave
• Hazaribagh - Yashwant Sinha's son Jayant Sinha is a IIT Delhi and Harvard alumnus and an ex-employee of Mckinsey is returning to India after nearly 25 years to fight in the constituency his father won in 2009 by a margin of about 40000 votes. Perhaps the most well-educated candidate in BJP this year, it should be interesting to see if he has the capability to make Indian villagers vote for him. He will face a contest mainly from Congress's sitting MLA Saurabh Narain Singh and Loknath Mahto who was an ex-BJP MLA but quit recently to contest on an All Jharkhand Students' Union ticket
• Ranchi - Congress's Subodh Sahay is two-time MP here and won by a very close margin last elections. The Ranchi contestants this time are much stronger and it is expected to be a close call. BJP's four-time consecutive MP Ram Tahal Choudhary, JVM's Amitabh Choudhary(influential president of the Jharkhand State Cricket Association and former ADG of Police), AJSU Party chief Sudesh Mahto who is a popular youth leader, Bandhu Tirkey of Trinamool Congress
• Jamshedpur - In this industrial area of the Tatas, JVM's Ajay Kumar(an IPS officer who also is a doctor, holds an MBA degree, and currently CEO of Max Neeman, a co. of Max group) is the sitting MP having won the bypolls in 2011 by a huge margin of 1.56 lakh votes, but BJP's candidate Bidyut Mahato has gained a lot of support in rural areas. If JMM and JVM split muslim votes, urban votes should go mostly in BJP's favor
• Khunti - A highly crime-ridden place, Khunti is on the Union home ministry's list of worst Maoist-hit districts in the country. Candidates here have not even been able to campaign in rural areas due to rebel threats. BJP's Karia Munda, a 7-time MP won in 2009 by a huge margin, but this time a sitting MLA Anosh Ekka of Jharkhand Party allegedly in the good books of PLFI rebels is expected to give him a very tough fight
• Rajmahal - The battle of the deserters. Hemlal Murmu was one of JMM founder members and a Shibu Soren loyalist for ages before switching to BJP a month ago when he felt insulted by chief minister Hemant Soren’s decision to induct Youth Congress leader Vijay as JMM’s MP nominee from Rajmahal. Whether Murmu will be able gain votes of his traditional JMM vote bank will be crucial to this constituency's outcome
• Singhbhum -Madhu Koda is the sitting MP, but this time he is campaigning for his wife Geetha, who is contesting on a Jai Bharat Samantha Party ticket. Madhu has great respect in the rural areas and should be able to campaign successfully, but it will be a close contest against Congress's Chitrasen Sinku, JVMP's Dashrath Gagrai and BJP candidate Laxman Giluwa
• Dhanbad - BJP's P.N.Singh has a strong presence in this constituency, having been an MLA for 3 terms before becoming an MP in 2009. His main opponent Chandrasekhar Dubey is contesting from Trinamool Congress after being denied a ticket by the JMM-Congress alliance. Other important contestants are JVM’s Bokaro MLA Samresh Singh and Congress's Ajay Dubey
• Godda - This constituency has wavered between INC and BJP in the last two years. Congress's Ansari lost to sitting MP Nishikant Dubey by a margin of 6000 votes last time. But this year, with competition from JVM's Pradip Yadav, BJP's competition is expected to split their votes among themselves
• Lohardaga - Chamra Linda, currently a sitting MLA in Hemant Soren's government contested in 2009 as an independent and lost closely to sitting MP Sudarshan Bhagat. This year, contesting for Trinamool Congress, he is expected to pose a tough challenge to him

The constituency-wise predictions are as below

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	CHATRA	Sunil Kumar Singh	BJP	Nilam Devi	JVM(P)
2	DHANBAD	Pashupati Nath Singh	BJP	Chandra Shekhar Dubey	AITC
3	DUMKA	Babu Lal Marandi	JVM(P)	Shibu Soren	JMM
4	GIRIDIH	Ravindra Pandey	BJP	Jagarnath Mahto	JMM
5	GODDA	Nishikant Dubey	BJP	Furkan Ansari	INC
6	HAZARIBAGH	Jayant Sinha	BJP	Loknath Mahto	AJSUP
7	JAMSHEDPUR	Bidyut Baran Mahato	BJP	Ajay Kumar	JVM
8	KHUNTI	Karia Munda	BJP	Anosh Ekka	JKP
9	KODARMA	Pranav Kumar Verma	JVM(P)	Ravindra Kumar Ray	BJP
10	LOHARDAGA	Chamra Linda	AITC	Sudarshan Bhagat	BJP
11	PALAMAU	Vishnu Dayal Ram	BJP	Kameshwar Baitha	AITC
12	RAJMAHAL	Hemlal Murmu	BJP	Vijay Kumar Hansdak	JMM
13	RANCHI	Ram Tahal Choudhary	BJP	Amitabh Choudhary	JVM
14	SINGHBHUM	Geeta Koda	JBSP	Laxman Giluwa	BJP

The seats tally prediction is as follows

Party	Seats
AITC	1
BJP	10
JBSP	1
JVM(P)	2

The seats I have predicted as non-BJP wins could go any which way, and Shibu Soren or Sunil Soren could very well pip Marandi in Dumka.

The Union Territories

Having covered Delhi already, this post is intended for 6 Union Territories which have one constituency each. There is no common pattern obviously. The toughest UTs to predict are Chandigarh and Pondicherry, where anything can happen. A brief summary of each Union Territory below.

• Chandigarh - The battle here has been called "Ladies vs Pawan Bansal". Three woman candidates from main parties against Congress's sitting MP Pawan Bansal. Kirron Kher of BJP was chosen over other local biggies and this could have proven detrimental to their chances here, but Satya Pal who was the losing candidate in 2009 has extended his support to Kher now. Gul Panag has been one of the most prominent AAP candidates campaigning for the party and could very well gain the votes of the youth and Sikhs in this region. Add BSP's Jannat Jahan to the picture and the fight is going to be very very close. I predict a close win for Kirron Kher
• Pondicherry - There are 30 candidates in fray for this Union Territory and it has been labelled as a 7-cornered contest between Congress, AINRC, DMK, AIADMK, PMK, CPI and AAP. The main contenders however would be the first 4. BJP has an alliance with AINRC in this constituency, as opposed to PMK/DMDK in Tamil Nadu. DMDK's Vijayakanth has pledged support to PMK. DMK has the support of VCK and IUML, while Congress and ADMK are going alone. AINRC is the UT's ruling party and the chief minister N Rangasamy is popular in the region. Along with the Modi factor, this seat could be a potential NDA win. But it is anybody's game.
• Andaman and Nicobar Islands - Congress has won 9 out of 11 times LS elections have been held for Andaman & Nicobar Islands, but BJP's strength here has increased after 1999, having won 2 out of the last 3 elections. Andaman is home to many Bengal people and their votes are usually the decisive factor.
• Lakshadweep - The Congress has dominated Lakshadweep ever since its first Lok Sabha elections in 1967, except for the 2004 polls when the Janata Dal (United) won. Sitting MP Hamdullah Sayeed, 31 was the youngest MP of the 2009 Lok Sabha. He should be able to retain this seat but it could be a close fight between him and Mohammed Koya of BJP and Mohammed Faizal P.P. of NCP
• Dadra and Nagar Haveli - BJP has the sitting MP and should manage to retain this seat easily, though Congress's Delkar has won this seat 6 times from 1989 to 2004
• Daman and Diu - The Gujarat connection and the success of Modi's rally in this constituency in support of Lalu Patel should ensure BJP's win in this constituency where BJP beat Congress in the last election by a margin of almost 25000 votes, which was more than the votes Congress polled

Constituency-wise predictions below

No	State	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS	ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS	Bishnu Pada Ray	BJP	Kuldeep Rai Sharma	INC
2	CHANDIGARH	CHANDIGARH	Kirron Kher	BJP	Gul Panag	AAP
3	DADRA AND NAGAR HAVELI	DADRA AND NAGAR HAVELI	Natubhai Gomanbhai Patel	BJP	Mohanbhai Sanjibhai Delkar	INC
4	DAMAN AND DIU	DAMAN AND DIU	Lalubhai Babubhai Patel	BJP	Ketan Dahyabhai Patel	INC
5	LAKSHADWEEP	LAKSHADWEEP	Muhammed Hamdullah Sayeed	INC	Mohammed Faizal.P.P	NCP
6	PUDUCHERRY	PONDICHERRY	R. Radhakrishnan	All India N.R. Congress	V Narayanasamy	INC

Gujarat

The Gujarat model of development - is it real or is it a big fat lie? The results in the state will be a strong indicator of this key talking point of this year's elections. Gujarat currently has 17 MPs from BJP and 9 from Congress. BJP is surely going to increase this tally, and even Congress has expressed hopes of winning at max 6 seats. Most opinion polls predict a maximum of 4 for Congress. After my analysis, I could give congress anywhere between 2-5 seats, as they do have some strong local leaders in some constituencies and the support of minorities and tribals in some. But the biggest factor that would prove crucial, I feel is the enthusiasm of the voters to see their own CM succeed in his quest to lead the nation. This could be the only plausible explanation for the significantly increased voter turnout(from 48% to 62%) witnessed in Gujarat. Modi and Advani are not going to have any trouble winning from Vadodara and Gandhinagar respectively. But there sure are some interesting constituencies to look out for.

• Ahmedabad East - Paresh Rawal was controversially given the ticket ahead of 7-time sitting MP Harin Pathak. Whether this move will backfire remains to be seen. BJP is expected to win due to the strength of its traditional vote bank here, but Congress's Himmat Singh Patel is a pukka local and has served as corporator for 4 terms and mayor of Ahmedabad as well. So it will be not be as easy for BJP as in the previous elections when it used to win by a margin of more than 60000 votes
• Sabarkantha - Sabarkantha has been a Congress stronghold owing to tribals, Rajputs, Thakors and OBCs. BJP won the seat in 2009, but Congress managed to secure 6 out of 7 seats during 2012 Assembly elections. Though one MLA has defected to BJP, reducing their count to 5, their candidate Shanker Vaghela is seen as a much more formidable opponent compared to BJP's Dipsinh Rathod
• Bardoli - This is an ST constituency which will be a big challenge for BJP against Congress's sittign MP Tushar Chaudhary, but high voter turnout could be an indication that the anti-incumbency factor would have worked in BJP's favor. Also BJP's candidate Parbhu Vasava was an ex-Congressman who switched to BJP before the elections. JD(U)'s Jagatsinh Vasava also has gained some ground, making it a 3-cornered fight
• Jamnagar - It's a battle of niece vs uncle in this constituency. Sitting Congress MP Vikram Maadam faces a fight against his niece Poonam Maadam, who is an MLA contesting LS polls for the first time. Congress has maintained a vote share of 47% in both the previous elections, but it is bound to go down this year.
• Dahod - This could be the only seat or one of the few seats that could go in Congress's favor. In 2009 Prabha Taviyad had won by a huge margin of 58000 votes but this year will face a tough contest from BJP MLA Jasvant Bhabhor
• Kheda - Union Minister for mines Dinsha Patel, aged 76, is one of Congress's seniormost and strongest candidates in Gujarat and has a clean image which he expects to carry him through in this constituency considered a Congress bastion, but Devusinh Chauhan, a BJP MLA should be able to breach it this time in all likelihood
• Banaskantha - Haribhai Chaudhary has won the bypolls here in 2013 following the death of the Congress MP Mukesh Gadhvi. He won it by more than 50000 seats(the highest margin since 1996) and should be able to retain the seat easily, contesting against Congress's Joitabhai Patel, a sitting MLA from Dhanera
• Chhota Udaipur - BJP's Ramsinh Rathwa and Congress's Naranbhai Rathwa are facing each other for the 5th time this year in this constituency which keeps swinging between Congress and BJP. Currently with BJP, there is no evident reason for Congress to win this seat apart from tribals' support. There has been a voter turnout of 71%, which could be a positive sign for Congress
• Panchmahal - This is the constituency whose centre is Godhra, and during 2009 elections, BJP won by a slender margin of 2000 votes. There has been a greater voter turnout this time(58.84% compared to 42% last time). It could be due to anti-incumbency against sitting BJP MP, or it could be a sign of youth rallying behind Modi. But it will sure be a close fight
• Rajkot - On Rajkot Lok Sabha seat, three sub-castes of Patels ‘Kadva’ (2 lakh) and ‘Leuva’ (2.75 lakh) and ‘Koli’ (2.35 lakh) community have remained decisivein the polls. The seat had been won by Leuva Patel candidates (from both parties) since 1977 to 2004, but in 2009, a Koli community leader from Congress won it for the first time. BJP has gambled on a Kadva leader in Mohan Kundaria against sitting MP Kuvarji Bavailia. It will be a close contest, but it seems quite likely that BJP will be able to snatch the seat back from Congress
• Patan - Thakors are the major community here, and since both BJP's and Congress candidates belong to that community, it is expected to be a close fight. Congress's Rathod is a stronger force locally and had contested from BJP last elections and lost to Congress. 
• Anand - Congress has won this seat in both 2004 and 2009, hence this is perceived as a constituency where BJP is weak. So BJP has fielded sitting MLA Dilip Patel, who should be able to defeat Congress's Bharatbhai Solanki riding on the Modi wave
• Junagadh - In this native town of the Ambanis, the sitting MP is from BJP but Punja Vansh of Congress has a much stronger local presence compared to Rajesh Chudasama of BJP, who is considered a new face. It will be a close fight
• Amreli - Though there is an anti-incumbency factor against the BJP MP from this constituency due to lack of development of roads in villages, it will be difficult for Congress's Thummar to overcome the Congress's anti-incumbency factor, but it will be a close contest

My constituency-wise predictions are as follows -

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	AHMEDABAD EAST	Paresh Rawal	BJP	Himmat Singh Patel	INC
2	AHMEDABAD WEST	Dr. Kirit P Solanki	BJP	Ishwarbhai Dhanabhai Makwana	INC
3	AMRELI	Naranbhai Kachhadiya	BJP	Virjibhai Thummar	INC
4	ANAND	Dilip Patel	BJP	Bharatbhai Solanki	INC
5	BANASKANTHA	Haribhai Parthibhai Chaudhary	BJP	Joitabhai Kasnabhai Patel	INC
6	BARDOLI	Parbhubhai Nagarbhai Vasava	BJP	Tusharbhai Amarsinhbhai Chaudhari	INC
7	BHARUCH	Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava	BJP	Jayeshbhai Ambalalbhai Patel	INC
8	BHAVNAGAR	Bharatiben Dhirubhai Shiyal	BJP	Pravinbhai Jinabhai Rathod	INC
9	CHHOTA UDAIPUR	Ramsinh Rathwa	BJP	Naranbhai Jemalabhai Rathva	INC
10	DAHOD	Prabhaben Kishorsinh Taviyad	INC	Jasvantsinh Sumanbhai Bhabhor	BJP
11	GANDHINAGAR	L.K. Advani	BJP	Kiritbhai Ishvarbhai Patel	INC
12	JAMNAGAR	Poonamben Hematbhai Maadam	BJP	Ahir Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Maadam	INC
13	JUNAGADH	Rajeshbhai Naranbhai Chudasama	BJP	Punjabhai Bhimabhai Vansh	INC
14	KHEDA	Devusinh Chauhan	BJP	Dinsha Patel	INC
15	KUTCH	Vinod Lakhamashi Chavda	BJP	Dinesh Parmar	INC
16	MAHESANA	Jayshreeben Kanubhai Patel	BJP	Jivabhai Ambalal Patel	INC
17	NAVSARI	C. R. Patil	BJP	Maksud Mirza	INC
18	PANCHMAHAL	Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh Chauhan	BJP	Ramsinh Parmar	INC
19	PATAN	Liladharbhai Khodaji Vaghela	BJP	Bhavsinhbhai Dahyabhai Rathod	INC
20	PORBANDAR	Vithalbhai Hansrajbhai Radadiya	BJP	Kandhalbhai Sarmanbhai Jadeja	NCP
21	RAJKOT	Mohanbhai Kalyanjibhai Kundariya	BJP	Kunvarjibhai Mohanbhai Bavaliya	INC
22	SABARKANTHA	Shankersinh Vaghela Bapu	INC	Dipsinh Shankarsinh Rathod	BJP
23	SURAT	Darshana Vikram Jardosh	BJP	Naishadhbhai Bhupatbhai Desai	INC
24	SURENDRANAGAR	Devjibhai Fatepura	BJP	Somanbhai Patel	INC
25	VADODARA	Narendra Modi	BJP	Madhusudan Devram Mistri	INC
26	VALSAD	K.C.Patel	BJP	Kishanbhai Vestabhai Patel	INC

The seats tally prediction is as follows -

Party	Seats
BJP	24
INC	2

Delhi and Goa

Delhi with 7 seats and Goa with 2 may not alter the final results significantly but witness some of the most interesting contests this year. AAP surprised everyone in the Delhi assembly elections by winning 28 seats, but afterwards seems to have lost much of its appeal in the state thanks to Kejriwal's resignation. Delhi could be a complete sweep for BJP if not for one or two constituencies where AAP still has a strong chance. I predict a 6-1 result in favor of BJP. In Goa, it could be one each for BJP and Congress.

Some key contests-

• Chandni Chowk - Most interesting battle in Delhi between Congress's Kapil Sibal, AAP's Ashutosh and BJP's Harsh Vardhan. Chandni Chowk consists of 20% Muslims and 15% Vaish population, one can expect the Muslim votes to get split between Congress and AAP, giving a good chance for BJP's Harsh Vardhan
• North West Delhi - This is a SC constituency and going by the Assembly election trend where 9 out of 12 SC constituencies were won by AAP, I think this seat with a high Dalit concentration should be won by Rakhi Birla of AAP. Udit Raj is also a Dalit leader and it could be a tough fight.
• New Delhi - Kejriwal won by a huge margin in the assembly elections from New Delhi, but since he has decided to fight from Varanasi, AAP may not have that much of a chance through Ashish Khetan, especially against BJP's Meenakshi Lekhi, whom any Arnab Goswami follower will want to vote for
• South Delhi - Ramesh Kumar of Congress is the sitting MP from this region, but according to some reports, Congress workers are trying to woo voters to vote for AAP in this constituency. It will be a close fight between AAP's Sehrawat and BJP's Ramesh Bidhuri. JNU students appear to be siding with Modi, but the number of votes they might add will not be significant. This is one constituency where AAP also has a strong chance.
• West Delhi - Interesting contest here to gain votes of Jats and Sikhs, Parvesh Verma of BJP is banking on the Jat votes while Jarnail Singh is banking on Sikh votes. Jarnail was the guy who threw shoes at P.Chidambaram for Congress not providing justice  to the 1984 riot victims. Parvesh Verma has tried to dent the Sikh vote bank by roping in Yo Yo Honey Singh and Navjot Sidhu for his campaigns. Congress's sitting MP Mahabal Mishra should have zero chance of winning this seat literally
• South Goa - The Goan church issued a pre-election advisory to its followers to vote for secular parties, which could prove as a jolt to BJP in Catholics-dominated South Goa. Congress's young candidate Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco has a good chance of beating BJP's Narendra Sawaikar.

The predictions for Delhi and Goa are as follows -

Delhi

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	CHANDNI CHOWK	Dr. Harsh Vardhan	BJP	Kapil Sibal	INC
2	EAST DELHI	Mahesh Giri	BJP	Rajmohan Gandhi	AAP
3	NEW DELHI	Meenakshi Lekhi	BJP	Ashish Khetan	AAP
4	NORTH EAST DELHI	Manoj Tiwari	BJP	Anand Kumar	AAP
5	NORTH WEST DELHI	Rakhi Birla	AAP	Udit Raj	BJP
6	SOUTH DELHI	Ramesh Bidhuri	BJP	Col Devender Sehrawat	AAP
7	WEST DELHI	Parvesh Verma	BJP	Jarnail Singh	AAP

Party	Seats
AAP	1
BJP	6

Goa

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	NORTH GOA	Shripad Yesso Naik	BJP	Ravi Naik	INC
2	SOUTH GOA	Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco	INC	Narendra Keshav Sawaikar	BJP

Party	Seats
BJP	1
INC	1

Punjab

Punjab is one of those states where there is a dual anti-incumbency factor at play - one against Congress at the centre and one against BJP-Shiromani Akali Dal alliance at the state level. Which of these is a bigger factor needs to be seen. In some constituencies like Ludhiana and Bathinda, Narendra Modi's rallies seem to have tilted the scales in the favor of BJP-SAD, but in Anandpur Sahib where SAD hasn't fielded a strong candidate, Congress played it well by fielding Ambika Soni who looks most likely to win.

There could be some really close contests in this state -

• Amritsar - Most high voltage battle of Punjab - Arun Jaitley vs Captain Amarinder Singh(former CM of Punjab) in the constituency from which Navjot Sidhu had won in 2009. Singh has even said that Sidhu would have been a stronger rival compared to Jaitley.
• Patiala - Preneet Kaur is the wife of Amarinder Singh, and had won the seat in 2009 by more than a lakh votes the last time. Thanks to AAP's Dharamvir Gandhi who was the victim of an alleged attack, anti-Cong votes could get split here and she could win comfortably against Deepinder Dhillon of SAD
• Bathinda - The battle of the Badals, where sitting MP Harsimrat Kaur Badal of Shiromani Akali Dal is taking on Manpreet Singh Badal, who had campaigned for her till the previous Lok Sabha elections. This constituency will be the litmus test for state anti-incumbency factor or Modi wave in Punjab
• Gurdaspur - Vinod Khanna who has been MP here for 3 times should be able to easily wrest this constituency from Bajwa who is the sitting MP, having beaten Khanna by a small margin of around 8000 votes last time
• Hoshiarpur - Congress had won by a very close margin of 349 votes last time, so this time it should be relatively easier for the NDA alliance to win this one
• Jalandhar - Congress has held this seat for the last 3 terms, so it should be a close fight here for SAD's Pawan Tinu to defeat Congress's Santokh Chaudhary
• Khadoor Sahib - This will be an interesting battle, where Brahmpura is a veteran Akali leader, who has fought panchayat elections, block samiti elections,and even assembly polls but is now fighting his first Lok Sabha election against a formidable Harminder Gill 

My predictions for constituency-wise results-

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	AMRITSAR	Arun Jaitley	BJP	Captain Amarinder Singh	INC
2	ANANDPUR SAHIB	Ambika Soni	INC	Himmat Singh Shergill	AAP
3	BATHINDA	Harsimrat Kaur Badal	SAD	Manpreet Singh Badal	INC
4	FARIDKOT	Paramjit Kaur Gulshan	SAD	Joginder Singh	INC
5	FATEHGARH SAHIB	Kulwant Singh	SAD	Sadhu Singh	INC
6	FIROZPUR	Sher Singh Ghubaya	SAD	Sunil Jakhar	INC
7	GURDASPUR	Vinod Khanna	BJP	Partap Singh Bajwa	INC
8	HOSHIARPUR	Vijay Sampla	BJP	Mohinder Singh Kaypee	INC
9	JALANDHAR	Pawan Kumar Tinu	SAD	Santokh Singh Chaudhary	INC
10	KHADOOR SAHIB	Ranjit Singh Brahmpura	SAD	Harminder Singh Gill	INC
11	LUDHIANA	Manpreet Singh Ayali	SAD	Ravneet Singh Bittu	INC
12	PATIALA	Preneet Kaur	INC	Deepinder Singh Dhillon	SAD
13	SANGRUR	Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa	SAD	Bhagwant Mann	AAP

The seats tally prediction is as follows

Party	Seats
BJP	3
INC	2
SAD	8

Haryana

Haryana has been a Congress stronghold for the last two Lok Sabha polls(2004 and 2009). In both these years, Congress won 9 out of 10 seats both these years. In 1999, BJP and Congress had 5 seats each. So Congress will be keen to retain as many seats as possible, but the task is not simple at all. BJP has an alliance with HJC, which is not perceived to be as strong this year as Om Prakash Chautala's INLD. Congress has some strong leaders in the state like Naveen Jindal and Deepender Singh Hooda and may manage to avoid a whitewash. The BJP-HJC combine would win at least 6 seats, and INLD and AAP could win 1 each.

Some interesting constituencies to watch out for -

• Gurgaon- It will be interesting to see if Yogendra Yadav can do a Kejriwal by pulling off an upset over sitting MP Indrajeet Singh Rao who defected from Congress to BJP to retain his seat. The other candidate who would make the contest interesting would be Zakir Hussain of INLD.
• Rohtak - Deepender Singh Hooda, son of the Haryana CM has been MP here since 2005, but recently due to a spinal problem, has been bedridden. But it looks like he still has an edge over BJP in this constituency with a large Jat population
• Kurukshetra - The BJP candidate here, Rajkumar Saini is not strong enough to beat 2-time sitting MP Naveen Jindal, who seems to have a very strong local presence. But it would be a closer contest this time around

My predictions for constituency-wise results

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	AMBALA	Ratan Lal Kahariya	BJP	Dr. Kusum Sherwal	INLD
2	BHIWANI-MAHENDRAGARH	Dharamveer Singh	BJP	Ms Shruti Choudhary	INC
3	FARIDABAD	Krishnapal Gurjar	BJP	Avtar Singh Bhadana	INC
4	GURGAON	Yogendra Yadav	AAP	Indrajeet Singh Rao	BJP
5	HISAR	Kuldeep Bishnoi	HJC	Dushyant Chautala	INLD
6	KARNAL	Ashwini Kumar Chopra	BJP	Jaswinder Singh Sandhu	INLD
7	KURUKSHETRA	Naveen Jindal	INC	Rajkumar Saini	BJP
8	ROHTAK	Deepender Singh Hooda	INC	Om Prakash Dhankar	BJP
9	SIRSA	Charanjeet Singh Rori	INLD	Sushil Indora	HJC
10	SONIPAT	Shri Ramesh Kaushik	BJP	Jagbir Malik	INC

The seats tally prediction is as follows

Party	Seats
AAP	1
BJP	5
HJC	1
INC	2
INLD	1

Maharashtra

Maharashtra was quite an interesting state to analyse due to the Sena vs MNS fights. After Bal Thackeray's death in 2012, it might seem like Shiv Sena is not the force it used to be, but thanks to their partnership with BJP, they sure will ride on the wave. Raj Thackeray of MNS though not in an alliance with the BJP has fielded candidates in only 2 constituencies where BJP is contesting, and has also indicated his support to Modi. I see the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance winning at least 33 of the seats. I might have underestimated MNS' strength to just 1 win, but they can certainly win at least 2 more. There are several interesting contests in this state -

• Pune - More than 1 lakh voters' names went missing in Pune, and it is to be seen if repolls are held. Kalmadi was denied the Congress ticket and the Congress contestant is not as powerful. It remains to be seen if MNS will play a larger role this time around, having placed third in 2009. I see it as a contest between BJP's Shirole and MNS's Paigude.
• Raver - Movie material story in this constituency where the BJP candidate is a 26-year old woman, Raksha Khadase, whose husband went into a depression and shot himself in 2010 because he lost a legislative council election to a Manish Jain. Raksha is now tipped to beat Manish in this election and ensure her husband's soul rests in peace
• Amravati - In this constituency sitting Shiv Sena MP Adsul has lodged a complaint with the EC because more than 40000 names(primarily SS supporters) had been deleted, giving NCP a huge edge. Navneet, just 28 is a former actress and wife of MLA Ravi Rana. It will be a close fight though
• Baramati - A stronghold of the Pawars. Supriya Sule, daughter of Sharad Pawar is contesting in this constituency where neither BJP nor Shiv Sena has even fielded a candidate of their own
• Dhule - AAP's Ansari N. Ahmed walked 50km to file his nominations and became a sensation among villagers in this constituency. It would be interesting to see if he can win against the likes of BJP's Bhamare and Congress's Amrishbhai Patel
• Gadchiroli - A Maoist hotbed, naxals had threatened people not to turn up for the polls and 1 cop even died in firing on poll day. Despite all this, the constituency has seen a near 70% turnout. Will be a close call here, but I predict a win for Ashok Nete of BJP
• Maval - Sitting MLA Laxman Jagtap refused NCP's ticket and decided to contest from Peasants and Workers Party. It will be a tough contest between Jagtap and NCP's Narwekar who was an ex-Shiv Sena member. MNS has also given its strong support to Laxman Jagtap
• Mumbai North - Last elections in 2009, Congress's Nirupam won by a margin of 5000 votes. This year he would find it much tougher to win against BJP's Gopal Shetty. Also contesting is AAP's Satish Jain, a post-graduate from the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Bangalore worked in the financial sector for 18 years in firms including Morgan Stanley and HDFC.
• Mumbai North Central - The Battle of the Daughters - Sunil Dutt's daughter Priya has won both the previous LS elections by huge margins, but will face a tough fight from Poonam, Pramod Mahajan's daughter. There has been growing dissent within the Congress ranks and since there is no MNS candidate contesting, Poonam will have a good chance
• Mumbai North East - Congress's sitting MP Sanjay Patil will find it tough to win a second time, in this high profile battle where BJP has fielded Kirit Somaiya and AAP has fielded Medha Patkar
• Mumbai South - One of the Mumbai constituencies where the Muslim votes could turn decisive against the NDA alliance. 2-time sitting MP but has been accused of amassing wealth and not caring for the constituency. But since Marathi votes are expected to be split between Sena and MNS, this gives Congress's Milind Deora the edge. AAP's Meera Sanyal would also be a major splitter,  but nothing more
• Nagpur - Though former BJP President Gadkari is contesting in Nagpur, it is not an easy win for him due to the high population of minorities who are expected to be siding with Congress
• Nandurbar - Nandurbar has remained a Congress bastion and Manikrao Gavit is seeking a record tenth term, but for the first time villagers are seeing someone other than the Gandhis as a leader. BJP's Heena, daughter of NCP MLA and former member of the Prithviraj Chavan cabinet Vijaykumar Gavit will pull off a coup if she wins here
• Palghar - In Palghar, the strongest party - BVA(Bahujan Vikas Party), is a local party run by a polite  strongman, Hitendra Thakur. Congress, in fact, had abjectly bowed down to Thakur’s demands and withdrew its nominee, Rajendra Gavit, who is a state minister.  BVA is expected to retain this seat in all likelihood
• Raigad - Sitting MP Anant Geete of Shiv Sena won in 2009 with the support of PWP. Also, Geete's posters include Modi instead of Bal Thackeray which is not expected to bode well with Thackeray followers. This time around, with MNS supporting PWP, the scales are expected to tilt in Kadam's favor
• Satara - Expected to be a easy win for Bhonsale, who's a descendent of Shivaji

The constituency-wise predictions are as follows-

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	AHMEDNAGAR	Dilipkumar Mansukhlal Gandhi	BJP	Rajeev Appasaheb Rajale	NCP
2	AKOLA	Sanjay Shyamrao Dhotre	BJP	Ambedkar Prakash Yashwant	BRP-BMS
3	AMRAVATI	Navneet Ravi Rana	NCP	Adsul Anandrao Vithoba	Shiv Sena
4	AURANGABAD	Chandrakant Bhaurao Khaire	Shiv Sena	Patil Nitin Suresh	INC
5	BARAMATI	Supriya Sule	NCP	Mahadeo Jagannath Jankar	RSP
6	BEED	Gopinathrao Munde Pandurang	BJP	Dhas Suresh Ramchandra	NCP
7	BHANDARA-GONDIYA	Praful Patel Manoharbhai	NCP	Nanabhau Falgunrao Patole	BJP
8	BHIWANDI	Patil Vishwanath Ramchandra	INC	Suresh Gopinath Mhatre	MNS
9	BULDHANA	Prataprao Ganpatrao Jadhav	Shiv Sena	Ingle Krushanarao Ganpatrao	NCP
10	CHANDRAPUR	Ahir Hansraj Gangaram	BJP	Deotale Sanjay Wamanrao	INC
11	DHULE	Bhamare Subhash Ramrao	BJP	Ansari Nihal Ahmed	AAP
12	DINDORI	Harishchandra Deoram Chavan	BJP	Bharati Pravin Pawar	NCP
13	GADCHIROLI-CHIMUR	Ashok Mahadeorao Nete	BJP	Dr Namdeo Usendi	INC
14	HATKANANGLE	Raju Shetty	SWP	Kallappa Baburao Awade	INC
15	HINGOLI	Subhash Bapurao Wankhede	Shiv Sena	Rajeev Shankarrao Satav	INC
16	JALGAON	A.T. Nana Patil	BJP	Annasaheb Dr.Satish Bhaskarrao Patil	NCP
17	JALNA	Raosaheb Dadarao Danve	BJP	Vilas Keshavrao Autade	INC
18	KALYAN	Dr.Shrikant Eknath Shinde	Shiv Sena	Pramod (Raju) Ratan Patil	MNS
19	KOLHAPUR	Sanjay Sadashiv Mandalik	BJP	Dhananjay Bhimrao Mahadik	NCP
20	LATUR	Dr. Sunil Baliram Gayakwad	BJP	Bansode Dattatray Gunderao	INC
21	MADHA	Mohite Patil Vijaysinh Shankarrao	INC	Sadabhau Ramchandra Khot	SWP
22	MAVAL	Laxman Pandurang Jagtap	PWPI	Rahul Suresh Narwekar	NCP
23	MUMBAI NORTH	Gopal Chinayya Shetty	BJP	Sanjay Brijkishorlal Nirupam	INC
24	MUMBAI NORTH CENTRAL	Smt. Poonam Mahajan	BJP	Smt. Priya Sunil Dutt	INC
25	MUMBAI NORTH EAST	Dr. Kirit Somaiya	BJP	Medha Patkar	AAP
26	MUMBAI NORTH WEST	Gajanan Chandrakant Kirtikar	Shiv Sena	Gurudas Vasant Kamat	INC
27	MUMBAI SOUTH	Milind Deora	INC	Bala Nandgaonkar	MNS
28	MUMBAI SOUTH CENTRAL	Rahul Ramesh Shewale	Shiv Sena	Eknath M. Gaikwad	INC
29	NAGPUR	Nitin Gadkari	BJP	Vilas Muttemwar	INC
30	NANDED	Ashok Shankarrao Chavan	INC	D.B. Patil	BJP
31	NANDURBAR	Manikrao Hodlya Gavit	INC	Heena Vijay Kumar Gavit	BJP
32	NASHIK	Pradeep Pawar	MNS	Hemant Tukaram Godse	Shiv Sena
33	OSMANABAD	Ravindra Vishwanath Gaikwad	Shiv Sena	Padmasinha Bajirao Patil	NCP
34	PALGHAR	Baliram Sukur Jadhav	BVA	Chintaman Navasha Wanga	BJP
35	PARBHANI	Sanjay Jadhav	Shiv Sena	Bhambale Vijay Manikrao	NCP
36	PUNE	Anil Shirole	BJP	Deepak Natharam Paigude	MNS
37	RAIGAD	Rameshbhai Kadam	PWPI	Tatkare Sunil Dattatrey	NCP
38	RAMTEK	Krupal Balaji Tumane	Shiv Sena	Mukul Wasnik	INC
39	RATNAGIRI SINDHUDURG	Vinayak Bhaurao Raut	Shiv Sena	Dr Nilesh Narayan Rane	INC
40	RAVER	Raksha Nikhil Khadase	BJP	Manishdada Jain	NCP
41	SANGLI	Sanjaykaka Patil	BJP	Pratik Patil	INC
42	SATARA	Udayanraje Pratapsinha Bhonsale	NCP	Ashok Waman Gaikwad	RPI
43	SHIRDI	Lokhande Sadashiv Kisan	Shiv Sena	Bhausaheb Rajaram Wakchaure	INC
44	SHIRUR	Adhalrao Shivaji Dattatrey	Shiv Sena	Nikam Devdatta Jaywant	NCP
45	SOLAPUR	Sushil Kumar Shinde	INC	Sharad Bansode	BJP
46	THANE	Rajan Baburao Vichare	Shiv Sena	Sanjeev Ganesh Naik	NCP
47	WARDHA	Ramdas Chandrabhanji Tadas	BJP	Meghe Sagar Dattatraya	INC
48	YAVATMAL-WASHIM	Shivajirao Moghe	INC	Bhavna Gawli	BJP

The seats tally would be as follows

Party	Seats
BJP	19
Shiv Sena	13
INC	7
NCP	4
PWPI	2
MNS	1
BVA	1
SWP	1
Total	48