Tamil Nadu

The Indian Lok Sabha Election 2014 is the biggest ever, and has sparked great political discussions across the length and breadth of the country. Though I didn't vote this year and felt terrible for it, I wanted to take it upon myself to know the candidates of the country, and thought my home state of Tamil Nadu would be the best place to start. Tamil Nadu completed its polling for the 2014 LS elections today(24th April), and I couldn't help but think about the numerous possibilities of the results this year around. Any election in India is more or less unpredictable, but this time in Tamil Nadu, with just one major alliance of BJP-PMK-DMDK-MDMK and the traditional biggies going alone, the results are all the more unpredictable. But in this age of data availability and extensive poll analysis, anybody can attempt to be a psephologist. So here is my first attempt. The predictions are solely based on election campaign reports by various media sources and a basic understanding of the constituency's dynamics. For Tamil Nadu, my predictions are as follows -

No	Constituency	Predicted Winner	Party	Other Top 2 Candidate	Party
1	ARAKKONAM	Velu R	PMK	Elango, N.R	DMK
2	ARANI	A.K.Moorthy	PMK	R.Sivanandam	DMK
3	CHENNAI CENTRAL	Dayanidhi Maran	DMK	S.R. Vijayakumar	ADMK
4	CHENNAI NORTH	Venkatesh Babu .T.G	ADMK	Girirajan R	DMK
5	CHENNAI SOUTH	J. Jayavardhan	ADMK	L. Ganesan	BJP
6	CHIDAMBARAM	Thirumaavalavan	VCK	Sudhamanirathinem	PMK
7	COIMBATORE	Radhakrishnan, C.P.	BJP	Natarajan, P.R.	CPI(M)
8	CUDDALORE	A Arunmozhithevan	ADMK	Nandagopalakrishnan.K.	DMK
9	DHARMAPURI	Anbumani Ramadoss	PMK	Mohan.P.S	ADMK
10	DINDIGUL	Udhaya Kumar .M	ADMK	Gandhirajan S	DMK
11	ERODE	Selvakumara Chinnayan S	ADMK	Ganesha Murthi A.	MDMK
12	KALLAKURICHI	V.P.Eswaran	DMDK	K. Kamaraj	ADMK
13	KANCHEEPURAM	Selvam G	DMK	Maragatham K	ADMK
14	KANNIYAKUMARI	John Thangam D.	ADMK	Radhakrishnan P.	BJP
15	KARUR	M. Chinnasamy	DMK	Thambidurai.M	ADMK
16	KRISHNAGIRI	G.K.Mani	PMK	Ashok Kumar.K	ADMK
17	MADURAI	R.Gopalakrishnan	ADMK	D Sivamuthu Kumar	DMDK
18	MAYILADUTHURAI	Bharathi Mohan	ADMK	Agoram K	PMK
19	NAGAPATTINAM	Gopal. Dr. K	ADMK	Vijayan. A.K.S	DMK
20	NAMAKKAL	Sundaram P.R	ADMK	Gandhiselvan.S	DMK
21	NILGIRIS	Gopalakrishnan, C.	ADMK	Raja, A.	DMK
22	PERAMBALUR	R.P.Marutharajaa	ADMK	Parivendar Pachamuthu, T.R.	BJP
23	POLLACHI	Eswaran.E.R.	KMDK	Pongalur Palanisamy.N	DMK
24	RAMANATHAPURAM	Anwhar Raajhaa.A	ADMK	Noor Jiyavudeen.M.I	SDPI
25	SALEM	Pannerselvam.V	ADMK	Sudhish L K	DMDK
26	SIVAGANGA	Pr Senthilnathan	ADMK	Raja H	BJP
27	SRIPERUMBUDUR	Jagathrakshakan, S	DMK	Ramachandran, K.N. Thiru	ADMK
28	TENKASI	Dr.Krishnasamy.K.	Puthiya Tamilagam	Lingam.P	CPI(M)
29	THANJAVUR	Baalu.T.R	DMK	Muruganantham.M	BJP
30	THENI	Parthipan, R.	ADMK	Pon. Muthuramalingam	DMK
31	THOOTHUKKUDI	Jegan. P	DMK	M.Pushparayan	AAP
32	TIRUCHIRAPPALLI	Kumar.P	ADMK	Mu.Anbhalagan	DMK
33	TIRUNELVELI	Prabakaran.K.R.P	ADMK	Devadasa Sundaram	DMK
34	TIRUPPUR	N.Dineshkumar	DMDK	E.V.K.S. Elangovan	INC
35	TIRUVALLUR	Venugopal. P. Dr.	ADMK	Ravikumar D.	VCK
36	TIRUVANNAMALAI	Ediroli Manian G	PMK	Annadurai C N	DMK
37	VELLORE	Shanmugam, A.C.	BJP	Abdul Rahman, M.	IUML
38	VILLUPURAM	S. Rajendran	ADMK	K.Umasankar	DMDK
39	VIRUDHUNAGAR	Vaiko	MDMK	Rathinavelu	DMK

As per this, the winners' tally would be as follows

Party	Count
ADMK	20
BJP	2
DMDK	2
DMK	6
KMDK	1
MDMK	1
PMK	5
Puthiya Tamilagam	1
VCK	1

The NDA alliance could win 12 out of 39 seats as per this prediction.

There are at least 29 constituencies where the competition could be very tight, but more or less Congress will be routed thoroughly barring 2 or 3 seats including Tiruppur where E.V.K.S.Elangovan is quite a formidable candidate to beat. Other constituencies that are of note are Kanniyakumari and Tuticorin, where V.S.Udhayakumar and M.Pushparayan are contesting respectively from AAP. Both are anti-nuke activists of repute and have managed to garner the support in villages and fishermen hamlets in that area. AAP also has strong contenders in Chennai, but the strength of the regional parties would be difficult to overcome there. The fate of Dayanidhi Maran in Chennai Central could also be decided by if AAP splits any votes there. In Sivaganga, where Karti Chidambaram is contesting, BJP's H Raja as well as ADMK's  P.R. Senthilnathan have equal chances. Another prominent personality who could end up losing is Mani Shankar Aiyar from Mayiladudhurai. The role of expelled DMK biggie M.K.Alagiri will be a deciding factor in Madurai and Tirunelveli. If there are any sureshot winners in these elections, it would have to be G.K.Mani of PMK in Krishnagiri, Thirumaavalavan of VCK in Chidambaram, Vaiko in Virudhunagar. T.R.Baalu shifted from Sriperumbudur to Thanjavur this time. Though I have predicted a win for him, he is expected to face a stiff contest there.

Hoping these predictions are at least 50% correct on May 16. I will continue with the rest of the states and provide a final tally before the date of counting. Fingers crossed.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this post are purely personal and unbiased and not intended to hurt anybody's sentiments.

Edit: After most exit polls predicted at least 21 of the 39 seats for Tamil Nadu, I have significantly revised my predictions. As per my first update, I had given ADMK only 12 seats. Now, I have revised it to 20.